Modeling Conflict Dynamics with Spatio-temporal Data

2013
ISBN: 978-3-319-01037-3
Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Buch, Englisch, 74 Seiten, Format (B × H): 155 mm x 235 mm, Gewicht: 1416 g

Reihe: SpringerBriefs in Mathematical Methods

This authored monograph presents the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modeling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. The authors use ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, and provide a predictive framework which is able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions.
The book also demonstrates the methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary, the results showing that this approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from preceding years. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and practitioners in the involved fields but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.

Zielgruppe

Research

Autoren/Hrsg.

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew

Dewar, Michael

Sanguinetti, Guido

Kadirkamanathan, Visakan

Flesken, Anaïd

Fachgebiete

• Technische Wissenschaften Technik Allgemein Modellierung & Simulation
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften Interdisziplinär Friedens- und Konfliktforschung
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Numerik und Wissenschaftliches Rechnen Angewandte Mathematik, Mathematische Modelle
• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Politische Gewalt Revolutionäre Gruppen und Bewegungen, Bewaffnete Konflikte
• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Internationale Beziehungen Konflikt- und Friedensforschung, Rüstungskontrolle, Abrüstung

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Conflict Data Sets and Point Patterns.- Theory.- Modelling and Prediction in Conflict: Afghanistan.