Wells Apocalypse When?

Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive
1. Auflage 2010
ISBN: 978-0-387-09837-1
Verlag: Springer
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 212 Seiten

Reihe: Springer Praxis Books

This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author's predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells' carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of not only natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets, but perhaps more surprisingly from man-made hazards arising from genetic engineering or robotics. Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace's principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer's random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory. The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and 'reference class' to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Wells, Willard

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Table of contents
;5
2;Preface
;9
3;Acknowledgments
;12
4;Figures
;13
5;Pictures
;14
6;Tables
;16
7;Algebraic symbols
;17
8;Abbreviations and acronym
;19
9;About the author
;20
10;Introduction
;21
11;1 Formulation
;30
11.1;1.1 MULTIPLE HAZARD RATES
;33
11.2;1.2 PROBABLITY THEORY: A QUICK REVIEW
;37
11.3;1.3 CHANGING HAZARD RATES
;39
11.4;1.4 POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
;40
11.5;1.5 PRINCIPLE OF INDIFFERENCE
;44
11.6;1.6 CUMULATIVE RISK
;53
12;2 Confirmation
;58
12.1;2.1 BAYES' THEORY
;58
12.2;2.2 STATISTICS OF BUSINESS FIRMS
;60
12.3;2.3 STATISTICS OF STAGE PRODUCTIONS
;64
12.4;2.4 LONGEVITY RANK
;71
12.5;2.5 UNIVARIATE SUMMARY
;72
13;3 Double jeopardy
;75
13.1;3.1 A PARADOX
;75
13.2;3.2 FORMULATION
;76
13.3;3.3 AN EXAMPLE
;79
13.4;3.4 LOGIC DIAGRAM
;82
13.5;3.5 FURTURE RESEARCH
;83
14;4 Human survivability
;85
14.1;4.1 FORMULATION
;87
14.2;4.2 HAZARDOUS DEVELOPMENT
;91
14.3;4.3 PREDICTOR FORMULATION
;99
14.4;4.4 SURVIVABILITY OF CIVILIZATION
;102
14.5;4.5 SURVIVABILITY OFTHE HUMAN RACE
;104
14.6;4.6 SUMMARY AND CURRENT HAZARD RATES
;107
14.7;4.7 BIASES
;109
15;5 Apocalypse how?
;111
15.1;5.1 SCENARIOS FOR EXTINCTION
;112
15.2;5.2 WILD CARDS
;123
15.3;5.3 OVERRATED NATURAL HAZARDS
;130
15.4;5.4 TRIAGE
;132
15.5;5.5 REFLECTIONS ON THIS STUDY
;134
15.6;5.6 PROSPECTS FOR A SAFER WORLD
;135
15.7;5.7 SYSTEMIC STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
;138
15.8;5.8 SECOND CHANCE?
;141
15.9;5.9 SURVIVAL HABITAT
;143
16;Appendix A Survival formula derived from hazard rates
;147
16.1;A.1 VARIABLE HAZARD RATE
;149
16.2;A.2 UNKNOWN VULBNERABILITY
;150
17;Appendix B Posterior survivalitity
;152
18;Appendix C Infinite mean duration
;154
19;Appendix D Survival predictor from Bayes' theory
;156
19.1;D.1 ADVANCE KNOWLEDGE
;159
19.2;D.2 NONINFORMATIVE PRIOR PROBABILITY
;162
20;Appendix E Stage productions running on specified dates
;163
21;Appendix F Extinction rates of prehistoric taxa
;175
22;Appendix G Disaggregated mortality
;178
23;Appendix H Stage productions with dual cum-risks
;181
24;Appendix I Overall plan for survivability calculation
;201
25;Appendix J Multiple hazards
;203
26;Appendix K Cum-risks for mam-made hazards
;206
27;Appendix L Statistical wieghts for types of hazard
;210
28;Appendix M Extinxtion thwatered by civilizations' collapse
;212
29;Appendix N Initial hazard rates
;215
30;References
;217
31;Index
;221