Weber Demographic Change and Economic Growth

Simulations on Growth Models
2010
ISBN: 978-3-7908-2590-9
Verlag: Physica-Verlag HD
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 270 Seiten

Reihe: Contributions to Economics

In this book the author investigates the impact of demographic change on economic growth. As a result of the current financial crisis, a new view on economics has been demanded by various scientists. The author provides such a new view on economic growth, using a methodology of system dynamics. By applying this method, the author focuses on characteristics of complex systems and analyzes aging and shrinking processes, and not only positive growth. Delays and feedback processes are also considered. This leads to deeper and revealing insights into economic behavior. In doing so, a new semi-endogenous growth model is developed by introducing a specific and detailed population sector (demographic growth model). The book shows and analyzes the behavior of such a model and tests several policy scenarios in a transfer chapter to apply the new theoretical approach on real world problems. The major results are summarized in 15 principles of demographic growth.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Weber, Lars

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Foreword;8
2;Acknowledgments;10
3;Contents;12
4;List of Figures;16
5;Chapter 1: Introduction;22
5.1;Problem Statement;22
5.2;Connection of Systems Dynamics, Economics and Demographics;23
5.3;Aims of the Study;26
5.4;Outline of the Study;28
5.5;Conceptual Tools;30
5.5.1;Causal Links;31
5.5.2;Stocks and Flows;32
5.5.3;Auxiliaries and Constants;32
5.5.4;Feedback Loops;33
5.5.5;Delays;34
5.5.6;Causal-Loop-Diagram and Stock-Flow-Diagram;35
6;Chapter 2: Demographic Determinants and Economic Impact;37
6.1;Introduction;37
6.2;Effects on Population;38
6.2.1;Fertility;39
6.2.1.1;Definition;39
6.2.1.2;Economic Theory of Fertility Choice (Barro/Becker 1988, 1989);42
6.2.1.3;Easterlin Hypothesis (1961);45
6.2.1.4;Biographic Theory of Fertility (Birg 1991);47
6.2.1.5;Other Fertility Theories;49
6.2.1.6;Trend and Effects on Fertility;50
6.2.2;Mortality;51
6.2.2.1;Definition;51
6.2.2.2;Determinants of Mortality;55
6.2.2.3;Trend and Effects on Mortality;55
6.2.3;Migration;59
6.2.3.1;Definition;59
6.2.3.2;Macroeconomic Push-Pull and Gravity-Models;61
6.2.3.3;Micro-economic Behavioral Models;62
6.2.3.4;Sociological Considerations;66
6.2.3.5;Trend and Effects on Migration;66
6.2.4;Structure;67
6.2.4.1;Definition;67
6.2.4.2;Population Pyramids;70
6.2.4.3;Malthusian Growth Model;70
6.2.4.4;Trends and Effects on Population Structure;74
6.2.5;Summary and Conclusion;76
6.3;Economic Effects;79
6.3.1;Financial Sector;79
6.3.1.1;Lifecycle Hypothesis of Consumption;79
6.3.1.2;Ricardian Equivalence and Saving Patterns;82
6.3.1.3;Rate of Return and Asset Meltdown Hypothesis;83
6.3.1.4;Trends;84
6.3.2;Labor Market;85
6.3.2.1;General Observations;85
6.3.2.2;Labor Supply;86
6.3.2.3;Labor Demand;88
6.3.2.4;Trends;91
6.3.3;R&D Sector;93
6.3.3.1;Skills;93
6.3.3.2;Labor Productivity;95
6.3.3.3;Innovation;96
6.3.3.4;Trends;97
6.3.4;Other Effects;97
6.3.4.1;Final Goods Sector: Consumption Pattern;97
6.3.4.2;Social Security Sector: Health and Long-Term Care;98
6.3.4.3;Social Security Sector: Pension Systems;99
6.3.4.4;Political Sector: Fiscal Policy;100
6.3.4.5;Political Sector: Transport Infrastructure;101
6.3.4.6;Political Sector: Election and Governance;101
6.3.4.7;Real Estate Sector: Housing Demand;101
6.3.5;Summary and Conclusion;102
6.4;Chapter Summary;105
7;Chapter 3: Neoclassical Growth Theories;107
7.1;Introduction;107
7.1.1;Stylized Facts and the Power of Growth;107
7.1.2;Short Overview;110
7.2;Exogenous Growth Model (Solow, 1956);112
7.2.1;Assumptions;112
7.2.1.1;Production Function;113
7.2.1.2;Labor Force;114
7.2.1.3;Closed Economy;114
7.2.1.4;Savings;115
7.2.1.5;Investments;115
7.2.1.6;Technological Progress;115
7.2.2;Structure;119
7.2.2.1;Stock-Flow-Diagram;119
7.2.2.2;Phase Plot;119
7.2.2.3;Long-Term Equilibrium;123
7.2.3;Dynamics;124
7.2.3.1;Transitional Dynamics;124
7.2.3.2;Approaching Velocity;125
7.2.3.3;Golden Rule of Accumulation;126
7.2.3.4;Dynamic Efficiency and Dynamic Inefficiency;128
7.2.4;Policy Experiments;128
7.2.4.1;Population;130
7.2.4.2;Population Structure;130
7.2.4.3;Fertility and Mortality;130
7.2.4.4;Migration;133
7.2.4.5;Other Factors;133
7.2.5;Augmentation;135
7.2.5.1;Model of ``Silver Growth´´ (Gruescu, 2006);135
7.2.5.2;Model with Migration (Barro/Sala-i-Martin, 2004);138
7.2.5.3;Model with Variable Population Growth (Solow, 1956);139
7.2.6;Discussion and Conclusion;142
7.3;Endogenous Growth Model (Romer, 1990);142
7.3.1;Precursor of the Model;144
7.3.1.1;AK-Model (Rebelo, 1991);144
7.3.1.2;Uzawa-Lucas-Model (1988);147
7.3.1.3;Theory of ``Creative Destruction´´ (Schumpeter);150
7.3.2;Assumptions;151
7.3.2.1;Ideas as a Public Good;153
7.3.2.2;Final-Goods Sector;154
7.3.2.3;Intermediate-Goods Sector;155
7.3.2.4;Research Sector;155
7.3.2.5;Labor Force;156
7.3.3;Structure;157
7.3.3.1;Stock-Flow-Diagram;157
7.3.3.2;Phase Plot;158
7.3.3.3;Long-Term Equilibrium;158
7.3.4;Dynamics;161
7.3.5;Policy Experiments;162
7.3.5.1;Population;163
7.3.5.2;Population Structure;163
7.3.5.3;Fertility and Mortality;163
7.3.5.4;Migration;163
7.3.5.5;Other Factors;163
7.3.6;Discussion and Conclusion;164
7.4;Semi-Endogenous Growth Model (Jones, 1995);165
7.4.1;Assumptions;166
7.4.1.1;Final-Goods Sector;166
7.4.1.2;Intermediate-Goods Sector;167
7.4.1.3;Research Sector;168
7.4.1.4;Labor Force;170
7.4.2;Structure;171
7.4.2.1;Stock-Flow-Diagram;171
7.4.2.2;Phase Plot;173
7.4.2.3;Long-Term Equilibrium;173
7.4.3;Dynamics;176
7.4.4;Policy Experiments;178
7.4.4.1;Population;178
7.4.4.2;Population Structure;178
7.4.4.3;Fertility and Mortality;180
7.4.4.4;Migration;181
7.4.4.5;Other Factors;182
7.4.5;Discussion and Conclusion;184
7.5;Chapter Summary;184
8;Chapter 4: Demographic Growth Model;186
8.1;Introduction;186
8.2;Model Specifications;188
8.2.1;System Structure;188
8.2.1.1;Model Boundary;188
8.2.1.2;Integration Method and Error Test;190
8.2.1.3;Model Overview;191
8.2.2;Part ``Population´´;193
8.2.2.1;Basic Structure;193
8.2.2.2;Aging;195
8.2.2.3;Births;196
8.2.2.4;Deaths;197
8.2.2.5;Migration;198
8.2.2.6;Total Population Sector;198
8.2.3;Part ``Research & Development´´;200
8.2.4;Part ``Growth´´;201
8.2.4.1;Intermediate Goods and Final Goods Sector;201
8.2.4.2;Demand for Goods;202
8.2.4.3;Saving and Consumption;204
8.2.4.4;Investment and Capital Stock;204
8.2.5;Part ``Utility´´;205
8.2.6;Initialization;209
8.2.7;Summary and Conclusion;210
8.3;Model Testing and Evaluation;210
8.3.1;Model Validation Tests;210
8.3.2;Test Run 1 ``Stable Population´´;214
8.3.2.1;Description;214
8.3.2.2;Initialization;214
8.3.2.3;Results;214
8.3.3;Test Run 2 ``Growing Population´´;219
8.3.3.1;Description;219
8.3.3.2;Initialization;224
8.3.3.3;Results;224
8.3.4;Summary and Conclusion;230
8.4;Chapter Summary;230
9;Chapter 5: Scenario and Policy Analysis;233
9.1;Base Run;234
9.1.1;Description;234
9.1.2;Initialization;234
9.1.3;Results Population Sector;235
9.1.4;Results R&D Sector;240
9.1.5;Results Growth Sector;244
9.1.6;Results Utility Sector;248
9.1.7;Summary and Conclusion;250
9.2;Scenario 1 ``Family Orientation´´;250
9.2.1;Description;250
9.2.2;Initialization;250
9.2.3;Results Population Sector;252
9.2.4;Results R&D Sector;257
9.2.5;Results Growth Sector;257
9.2.6;Results Utility Sector;261
9.2.7;Summary and Conclusion;261
9.3;Scenario 2 ``Education Orientation´´;265
9.3.1;Description;265
9.3.2;Initialization;265
9.3.3;Results Population Sector;265
9.3.4;Results R&D Sector;270
9.3.5;Results Growth Sector;275
9.3.6;Results Utility Sector;275
9.3.7;Summary and Conclusion;280
9.4;Scenario 3 ``Migration Orientation´´;280
9.4.1;Description;280
9.4.2;Initialization;282
9.4.3;Results Population Sector;282
9.4.4;Results R&D Sector;288
9.4.5;Results Growth Sector;288
9.4.6;Results Utility Sector;295
9.4.7;Summary and Conclusion;295
9.5;Chapter Summary;295
10;Chapter 6: Conclusion and Outlook;304
10.1;General Summary;304
10.2;Principles of Demographic Growth;307
10.3;Implications for Further Research;310
11;Zusammenfassung;313
12;Annex;319
12.1;A.1Model Initialization;319
12.1.1;A.1.1Test 1: Stable Population;319
12.1.2;A.1.2Test 2: Growing Population;319
12.1.3;A.1.3Base Run;319
12.2;A.2Model Equations;329
12.2.1;A.2.1Model Part ``Population´´;329
12.2.2;A.2.2Model Part ``Population´´: Calculation;330
12.2.3;A.2.3Model Part ``Growth´´;331
12.2.4;A.2.4Model Part ``Growth´´: Calculation;332
12.2.5;A.2.5Model Part ``Utility´´;334
12.2.6;A.2.6Model Part ``Utility´´: Calculation;335
12.2.7;A.2.7Input Variables from External Spreadsheet;336
12.2.8;A.2.8Policy Switches;338
12.2.9;A.2.9Subscripts and Unit Dummies;339
13;References;340