Wagner / Disparte Global Risk Agility and Decision Making

Organizational Resilience in the Era of Man-Made Risk
1. Auflage 2016
ISBN: 978-1-349-94860-4
Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 415 Seiten

Reihe: Economics and Finance

In Global Risk Agility and Decision Making, Daniel Wagner and Dante Disparte, two leading authorities in global risk management, make a compelling case for the need to bring traditional approaches to risk management and decision making into the twenty-first century. Based on their own deep and multi-faceted experience in risk management across numerous firms in dozens of countries, the authors call for a greater sense of urgency from corporate boards, decision makers, line managers, policymakers, and risk practitioners to address and resolve the plethora of challenges facing today’s private and public sector organizations.

Set against the era of manmade risk, where transnational terrorism, cyber risk, and climate change are making traditional risk models increasingly obsolete, they argue that remaining passively on the side-lines of the global economy is dangerous, and that understanding and actively engaging the world is central to achieving risk agility. Theirdefinition of risk agility taps into the survival and risk-taking instincts of the entrepreneur while establishing an organizational imperative focused on collective survival.

The agile risk manager is part sociologist, anthropologist, psychologist, and quant. Risk agility implies not treating risk as a cost of doing business, but as a catalyst for growth. Wagner and Disparte bring the concept of risk agility to life through a series of case studies that cut across industries, countries and the public and private sectors. The rich, real-world examples underscore how once mighty organizations can be brought to their knees—and even their demise by simple miscalculations or a failure to just do the right thing. The reader is offered deep insights into specific risk domains that are shaping our world, including terrorism, cyber risk, climate change, and economic resource nationalism, as well as a frame of reference from which to think about risk management and decision making in ourincreasingly complicated world.

This easily digestible book will shed new light on the often complex discipline of risk management. Readers will learn how risk management is being transformed from a business prevention function to a values-based framework for thriving in increasingly perilous times. From tackling governance structures and the tone at the top to advocating for greater transparency and adherence to value systems, this book will establish a new generation of risk leader, with clarion voices calling for greater risk agility. The rise of agile decision makers coincides with greater resilience and responsiveness in the era of manmade risk.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Wagner, Daniel

Disparte, Dante

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Preface;8
1.1; The Illusion of Effective Risk Management;9
1.2; The Unforeseen Versus the Unknown;10
2;Acknowledgements;14
2.1; Dante Disparte;14
2.2; Daniel Wagner;15
3;Contents;16
4;About the Authors;18
4.1;Dante Disparte;18
4.2; Daniel Wagner;19
5;Praise for Global Risk Agility and Decision Making;22
6;List of Abbreviations;26
7;List of Illustrations;30
8;List of Tables;32
9;Part I: The Risk Management Conundrum;33
9.1;1: Risk Management in a Global World;34
9.1.1; Declaring Battle;34
9.1.2; The Global Risk Landscape;35
9.1.3; Evolving Perceptions of Risk;38
9.1.4; Preparing for Global Shocks;41
9.1.5; Taking a Broader View of Risk;43
9.1.6; Global Risk Agility;45
9.2;2: Risk Management as a Process;48
9.2.1; Risk Is a Process Not an Event;48
9.2.2; Current Frameworks and Their Utility;51
9.2.3; Classical Risk Management Frameworks;53
9.2.4; Matching Process with Process;55
9.2.5; Evolving Over Time;57
9.2.6; Risk in the Asset-less Economy;58
9.2.7; Complex Systems Fail in Complex Ways;61
9.2.8; Agile Risk Control;65
9.2.9; Gaining Agility and Speed;67
9.3;3: The Risk Continuum;71
9.3.1; Out of Sample Events: Hurricanes;72
9.3.2; Macro Agility in Panama;74
9.3.3; Anti-Risk Agility: Neglect, Bankruptcy, and Crime in the Caribbean;76
9.3.4; How Kings Fall;79
9.3.5; Cities at Risk;80
9.3.6; Reputation Risk Has a Price;84
9.3.7; Anything in the Name of Growth;85
9.3.8; Municipal and Sovereign Risk;87
9.3.9; A New Host for Systemic Risk;89
9.3.10; A National CRO;93
9.3.11; In Search of Causality While Ignoring Change;94
9.4;4: Complexity Reduction;97
9.4.1; Sunlight Is the Greatest Disinfectant;98
9.4.2; The First and Last Line of Defense;102
9.4.3; Values in Action;107
9.4.4; Primordial Lesson;110
9.4.5; Tempering Values with Risk Taking;111
9.4.6; Absence of Evidence;112
9.4.7; Analysis Paralysis;113
9.4.8; Entrepreneurialism;114
9.4.9; Complexity, Capital, and Supply Chains;117
9.4.10; Simplicity Is the Key;119
9.5;5: Three-Dimensional Risk Management;125
9.5.1; One-Dimensional Risk Management and the Placebo Effect;127
9.5.2; Agile Risk Culture;133
9.5.3; Assessing Risk Culture;134
9.5.4; Lessons from Entrepreneurs;135
9.5.5; Unequal Resilience;137
9.5.6; Risk Agility Meets Mobility;138
9.5.7; Mobility Curtailed;140
9.5.8; Expatriate Risk;141
9.5.9; Antiagile;142
10;Part II: The Global Risk Labyrinth;146
10.1;6: Terrorism;147
10.1.1; A Globalization Backlash;147
10.1.2; The Importance of Perceptions;150
10.1.3; Some Surprising Terrorism Facts;152
10.1.4; The Economic Cost of Terrorism;155
10.1.5; Cost-Effective Terrorism;157
10.1.6; The Impact of Terrorism on Foreign Direct Investment;159
10.1.7; Why It Is so Difficult to Stop the Funding of the IS;166
10.1.8; What the IS Is Teaching the West About Social Media;169
10.1.9; Implications for Business;171
10.2;7: Economic and Resource Nationalism;173
10.2.1; Economic Nationalism’s Rise;173
10.2.2; Bolivia’s Indigenous President;175
10.2.3; Argentina’s History Lesson;178
10.2.4; A New Era for Papua New Guinea?;180
10.2.4.1; It Takes Two to (Con)Tango;181
10.2.4.2; Systemic Corruption Creates Risk;183
10.2.4.3; Lessons Unlearned;183
10.2.5; Pakistan’s Message to Foreign Investors;185
10.2.5.1; A Bad Deal;185
10.2.5.2; Extractive Enterprises Are Particularly Vulnerable;186
10.2.5.3; Lessons Learned;187
10.2.6; The Impact of Energy Resources on Bilateral Relations;188
10.2.6.1; Myanmar’s Strategic Energy Play;188
10.2.6.2; You Can’t Always Get What You Want;189
10.2.6.3; The Lady and the Dragon;190
10.2.6.4; Beating the West at Its Own Game;191
10.2.7; China and the Rule of Law;192
10.2.8; Do Sanctions Actually Work?;194
10.2.8.1; How Sanctions Can Backfire;196
10.2.9; Conclusion;199
10.3;8: Climate Change;201
10.3.1; De-risking Climate Change;206
10.3.2; The Readiness Dilemma;209
10.3.3; A Private Sector Response;216
10.3.4; A Return on Misfortune;218
10.3.5; For Rising Tides, Deeper Pools;220
10.4;9: Cyber Risk;226
10.4.1; Business Models for Ransom;228
10.4.2; Cyber Terrorism;229
10.4.3; Time for a Cyber FDIC;232
10.4.4; The Internet of Things;235
10.4.5; Flash Crash…and Burn;239
10.4.6; The Perfect Storm;242
10.4.7; Blurred Lines;243
10.4.8; Agile Threat … Agile Response;244
10.4.9; Is Cyber Risk to Be Feared or Respected?;245
10.5;10: Corporate Social Responsibility;248
10.5.1; Shades of Grey;248
10.5.2; Governing Principles;250
10.5.3; CSR and Globalization;251
10.5.4; The Social Risk Landscape;253
10.5.5; Managing Strategic Partnerships;255
10.5.6; CSR and Shareholder Value;256
10.5.7; What Consumers Really Want;258
10.5.8; Challenges Companies Can Bring Upon Themselves;261
10.5.8.1; GE;261
10.5.8.2; Pepsi;262
10.5.9; Promoting Social Responsibility in the Developing World;264
10.5.9.1; The Project Finance Challenge;264
10.5.9.2; The Importance of CSR;265
10.5.9.3; Public/Private Sector Collaboration;267
10.5.9.4; Information Sharing;267
10.5.9.5; The Path Forward;268
10.5.10; Conclusion;269
10.6;11: Country Risk Management;271
10.6.1; Defining Country Risk;271
10.6.2; Country vs Sovereign vs Political Risk;272
10.6.3; Effective Country Risk Management in the New Normal;274
10.6.4; The Boardroom Vacuum;275
10.6.5; How the Arab Awakening Impacted Country Risk Analysis;277
10.6.6; Is Country Risk Really Rising?;280
10.6.7; Trade Protectionism Largely Absent;281
10.6.8; An Evolving Perception of Risk;282
10.6.9; What the Euro Crisis Implies About Managing Country Risk;283
10.6.10; Rising Social and Political Risks;285
10.6.11; Common Sense Political Forecasting;287
10.6.12; Why Every Manager Needs to Be a Country Risk Manager;289
11;Part III: Effective Decision Making;291
11.1;12: Transactional Risk Management;292
11.1.1; Elements of an Effective Risk Management Process;293
11.1.2; Embracing Best Board Practices;296
11.1.3; Having the Right Tools and Orientation;298
11.1.4; Engaging Successfully with the World;299
11.1.5; Myth Busting;300
11.1.6; Necessary Transformation;302
11.1.7; Using the Right Tools/Asking the Right Questions;304
11.1.8; Economic Growth;308
11.1.9; Economic Health;309
11.1.10; Power Sector;309
11.1.11; Risk Manager Beware;312
11.2;13: Anticipatory Risk Management;314
11.2.1; Self-induced ‘Grey Swans’;315
11.2.2; Transitioning Away from Enterprise Risk Management;318
11.2.3; The Importance of Having an Informed Board;320
11.2.4; The Moral Compass Imperative;323
11.2.5; Making the Right Choices;324
11.2.6; Business Continuity Management;326
11.2.7; Crisis Management: Managing the Media;327
11.2.8; Staying Ahead of the Curve;330
11.3;14: Risk Governance;332
11.3.1; Governance Structures and Paralysis;334
11.3.2; The Sad Case of the U.S. Export–Import Bank;335
11.3.3; Separation of Powers;337
11.3.4; The Effect of Motives, Incentives, and Opacity;339
11.3.5; Risk-taking Without Bearing Consequences;340
11.3.6; Considering Secondary Impacts and the Value of Thoughtful Planning;344
11.3.7; Planning for Future Shocks to the System;347
11.3.8; Purposely Complex and Ambiguous Risk Governance;350
11.4;15: Conclusion;354
11.4.1; Failing Forward;354
11.4.2; Adaptability and Agility;356
11.4.3; The Risk-Ready Firm;357
11.4.4; The False Positives of History;358
11.4.5; A Fear-Based Approach to Risk;359
11.4.6; Risk Taking and Entrepreneurialism;361
11.4.7; Whales, Rogue Traders, and Accountability;362
11.4.8; Doing the Right Thing;363
11.4.9; Building Trust in the Digital World;364
11.4.10; The Importance of Looking Beyond the Headlines;366
11.4.11; Down and Out in Brazil;367
11.4.12; Praying for the Tourists in Thailand;368
11.4.13; The Importance of Unvarnished Opinions;369
11.4.14; Everyone’s Opinion Is Valuable;370
11.4.15; Globalization’s Backlash;371
11.4.16; The Rise of the Global Middle Class;373
11.4.17; The (Fr)Agile Balancing Act;375
12;Bibliography;377
13;Index;407