Thiel Nested Games of External Democracy Promotion

The United States and the Polish Liberalization 1980-1989
1. Auflage 2010
ISBN: 978-3-531-92606-3
Verlag: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 318 Seiten, eBook

Dr. Rainer Thiel received his PhD from Freie Universität Berlin and is currently a Research Consultant at empirica Communication and Technology Research in Bonn.

Zielgruppe

Research

Autoren/Hrsg.

Thiel, Rainer

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Acknowledgements;5
2;Contents;7
3;List of Figures and Tables;12
4;List of Abbreviations and Acronyms;13
5;1 Regime Transitions and External Democracy Promotion;15
5.1;1.1 Research Design and Summary of the Argument;16
5.2;1.2 The Nested Games Model;19
5.3;1.3 Central Contribution;24
5.4;1.4 Outline;31
6;2 The International Dimension of Regime Change;33
6.1;2.1 Domestic Causes of Regime Transitions;34
6.2;2.2 International Framework;37
6.2.1;2.2.1 The Internationalist Argument;38
6.2.2;2.2.2 Outside Conditions: Diffusion Effects, Contagion and Socialization;41
6.3;2.3 External Democracy Promotion;43
6.3.1;2.3.1 Strategies, Instruments and Targets;43
6.3.2;2.3.2 Democracy Promotion versus Democracy Protection;48
6.4;2.4 Quantifying International Factors;50
6.5;2.5 Democratization and International Relations Theories;52
6.5.1;2.5.1 International Organizations and Domestic Politics;52
6.5.2;2.5.2 Uncertainty and Crises: Deterring Authoritarian Repression;56
7;3 Strategic Transitions;60
7.1;3.1 The Positional School;61
7.1.1;3.1.1 Transition Politics as Rational Choice;61
7.1.2;3.1.2 Formal Theories of Democratization;65
7.1.3;3.1.3 A Question of Life and Death? Uncertainty about Government Repression;71
7.2;3.2 Transitions as Distributional Conflict: The Economic School;75
7.3;3.3 Rationality and Democratization Actors;77
7.3.1;3.3.1 Why Game Theory?;77
7.3.2;3.3.2 Rationality and its Critiques;80
7.3.3;3.3.3 Limitations;83
8;4 Nested Games of External Influence on Strategic Regime Transition;87
8.1;4.1 Modeling the International Dimension;88
8.1.1;4.1.1 Internal-External Linkages: Scope of Theory and Analysis;88
8.1.2;4.1.2 Constructing Games;92
8.1.3;4.1.3 Basic Assumptions of the Nested Games Approach;96
8.2;4.2 Regime, Opposition, and Foreign Power;102
8.2.1;4.2.1 Principal Arena I: Game of Transition;102
8.2.2;4.2.2 Principal Arena II: Outcomes;108
8.2.3;4.2.3 International Arena I: Foreign Pressure Game;113
8.2.4;4.2.4 International Arena II: Outcomes;118
8.3;4.3 Nested Games of Transition and Foreign Pressure;126
8.3.1;4.3.1 Formalization;126
8.3.2;4.3.2 Discussion and Interpretation;134
8.4;4.4 The Model’s Implications and Generating of Hypotheses;142
8.4.1;4.4.1 Preference Change of the Regime;143
8.4.2;4.4.2 Weighing the Games;145
8.4.3;4.4.3 Temporal Dimension;149
8.4.4;4.4.4 Impact on the Opposition and the Democracy Promotion Dilemma;150
8.4.5;4.4.5 Summary;154
9;5 Methodology;157
9.1;5.1 Empirical Research Design;157
9.2;5.2 Case Selection;163
9.3;5.3 Data Basis;168
9.4;5.4 Structure of the Empirical Part;172
10;6 U.S. Democracy Assistance in the Polish Liberalization Process, 1980-1989;175
10.1;6.1 The United States Policy Toward Poland;176
10.2;6.2 Poland’s Path to the Round Table Negotiations;181
10.2.1;6.2.1 The Birth of Solidarity, Strikes, and Martial Law, 1980-1981;181
10.2.2;6.2.2 Underground and Ostensible Stability, 1982-1988;183
10.2.3;6.2.3 Induction and Negotiations of the Round Table, 1988-1989;188
10.3;6.3 Supporting Solidarity;190
10.3.1;6.3.1 Sustaining the Underground;191
10.3.2;6.3.2 Communications and Propaganda;195
10.3.3;6.3.3 The Logistics of External Influence;198
10.3.4;6.3.4 Advice and Influence on Opposition Strategy;202
10.3.5;6.3.5 How to Elect Jaruzelski without Voting for him?;208
10.4;6.4 Pressuring the Jaruzelski Regime;212
10.4.1;6.4.1 Sanctions as Policy Instrument;212
10.4.2;6.4.2 The Post-Martial Law Sanctions Regime;215
10.5;6.5 Sub-Actors and Mechanisms of Democracy Promotion in Poland;218
10.5.1;6.5.1 National Endowment for Democracy;218
10.5.2;6.5.2 Waging Underground Political Warfare: The CIA;223
10.5.3;6.5.3 A Foreign Service of Its Own: The AFL-CIO;226
10.5.4;6.5.4 Department of State and USIA;229
11;7 Correspondence between Theory and Facts;232
11.1;7.1 Effect on Communist Regime;232
11.2;7.2 Effect on Solidarity;237
11.2.1;7.2.1 Professionalizing the Underground;238
11.2.2;7.2.2 Underground Press;239
11.2.3;7.2.3 Morale Boosting;241
11.3;7.3 Costs of Repression;245
11.3.1;7.3.1 Impact of Opposition Assistance on the Regime’s Cost Structure;245
11.3.2;7.3.2 Timeline: Nested Costs of Authoritarianism;248
11.4;7.4 Strategy Shifts and Trajectories of External Influence;250
11.4.1;7.4.1 Repression 1981;252
11.4.2;7.4.2 Opening 1986;252
11.4.3;7.4.3 Negotiations 1988/1989;255
11.4.4;7.4.4 The Juncture of Jaruzelski’s Election to President in 1989;257
12;8 Conclusion;259
12.1;8.1 Democracy Promotion as Nested Games;260
12.2;8.2 Key Implications for External Democracy Promotion;265
12.3;8.3 Future Research;269
13;Bibliography;275
14;Appendix 1: Derivations Repeated Play of Non-nested Games;304
15;Appendix 2: Derivations of Nested Game with Varying Frequencies;307
16;Appendix 3: List of Interviews;309

Regime Transitions and External Democracy Promotion.- The International Dimension of Regime Change.- Strategic Transitions.- Nested Games of External Influence on Strategic Regime Transition.- Methodology.- U.S. Democracy Assistance in the Polish Liberalization Process, 1980-1989.- Correspondence between Theory and Facts.- Conclusion.

Über Autor(innen)

Dr. Rainer Thiel received his PhD from Freie Universität Berlin and is currently a Research Consultant at empirica Communication and Technology Research in Bonn.