Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction

1. Auflage. Softcover version of original hardcover Auflage 2003
ISBN: 978-3-642-07806-4
Verlag: Springer

Buch, Englisch, 337 Seiten, Paperback, Format (B × H): 156 mm x 234 mm, Gewicht: 541 g

Reihe: Springer Series in Synergetics

The vulnerability of our civilization to earthquakes is rapidly growing, rais­ ing earthquakes to the ranks of major threats faced by humankind. Earth­ quake prediction is necessary to reduce that threat by undertaking disaster­ preparedness measures. This is one of the critically urgent problems whose solution requires fundamental research. At the same time, prediction is a ma­ jor tool of basic science, a source of heuristic constraints and the final test of theories. This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction. Its following aspects are considered: - Existing prediction algorithms and the quality of predictions they pro­ vide. - Application of such predictions for damage reduction, given their current accuracy, so far limited. - Fundamental understanding of the lithosphere gained in earthquake prediction research. - Emerging possibilities for major improvements of earthquake prediction methods. - Potential implications for predicting other disasters, besides earthquakes. Methodologies. At the heart of the research described here is the inte­ gration of three methodologies: phenomenological analysis of observations; "universal" models of complex systems such as those considered in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics; and Earth-specific models of tectonic fault networks. In addition, the theory of optimal control is used to link earthquake prediction with earthquake preparedness.

Zielgruppe

Research

Autoren/Hrsg.

Soloviev, Alexandre A.

Keilis-Borok, Vladimir

Fachgebiete

• Naturwissenschaften Physik Angewandte Physik Statistische Physik, Dynamische Systeme
• Naturwissenschaften Physik Angewandte Physik Geophysik
• Geowissenschaften Geologie Vulkanologie, Seismologie
• Geowissenschaften Geologie GIS, Geoinformatik
• Geowissenschaften Geologie Geophysik

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1 Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction: Four Paradigms.- 2 Hierarchical Models of Seismicity.- 3 Models of Dynamics of Block-and-Fault Systems.- 4 Earthquake Prediction.- 5 Earthquake Prediction Strategies: A Theoretical Analysis.- 6 Recognition of Earthquake-Prone Areas.- References.