Serageldin Climate Change

1. Auflage 2024
ISBN: 978-977-795-483-9
Verlag: Aldar Almasriah Allubnaniah
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: 6 - ePub Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 286 Seiten

The Nizami Ganjavi International Center (NGIC) is an institution based in Azerbaijan, that celebrates the legacy of the great Azerbaijani poet and sage, Nizami Ganjavi (1141-1209), and that promotes the participation of high-level eminent figures in the study of possible solutions for the great problems of our time, with a view to promoting knowledge, tolerance, dialogue and understanding between peoples, cultures and nations.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Serageldin, Ismail

Leseproben

1. The General Problem of Climate Change The Long Journey of Discovery: In 1798, Napoleon Bonaparte conquered Egypt. He brought with him 157 scientists and one of his first acts was to establish the Institut d’Egypte, Egypt’s Academy of Sciences, which is still going strong today, 225 years later. The first secretary of that august institution was a young Joseph Fourier, who in 1822 established his famous “heat equations”. In 1824, Joseph Fourier calculated that an Earth-sized planet, at our distance from the Sun, ought to be much colder. He suggested something in the atmosphere must be acting like an insulating blanket. Other scientists worked on this problem, and in 1896, a seminal paper by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius (1859 – 1927) first predicted that changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could substantially alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect. Other scientists confirmed and added to these observations and deductions. In 1953 Gilbert Plass (1920-2004) warned of the potential implications of an increased concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for global warming. He said, “At its present rate of increase, the CO2 in the atmosphere will raise the earth’s average temperature 1.5° Fahrenheit every 100 years” (Time magazine 1953). And in 1956 he formulated the CO2 theory of climate change, tying CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere to global warming. This pioneering work was further reaffirmed by Roger Revelle and Hans Suess in 1957 . Subsequent research by a distinguished constellation of scientists from around the world confirmed and reaffirmed the work of these early pioneers. Understanding the Green House Effect: Today, there is no longer any doubt that humanity faces many crises, the overarching one being climate change. There is now a consensus that climate change and global warming are being driven by human activities that are releasing significant amounts of gases into the atmosphere which are creating a Green House Effect, and warming the planet far beyond what we would have expected based on the natural processes we witnessed in the preceding geological record of the planet. And the predicted manifestations of this climate change are already being witnessed everywhere: from extreme weather events such as hurricanes, tornadoes and severe storms, to extended periods of record heat and cold, wildfires(3), and terrible cycles of droughts and floods. Less visible, but equally important, is the devastation of the earth’s biodiversity, and in the distance, we can also see the risks of sea level rise.


Understanding the Green House Gases (GHGs) that are Causing Climate Change: These Green House Gases (GHGs) are primarily Carbon Dioxide (CO2) resulting from our burning of fossil fuels to generate energy, which permeates almost all of human socio-economic activities. But beyond CO2 we also generate Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O) as well as some fluorinated gases all of which have very considerable impact on the climate, in fact far more than CO2(4). However, CO2 is already at a much higher level of concentration in the atmosphere, and stays much longer in the atmosphere, dissipating over centuries, while these other GHGs dissipate in a matter of decades (5). To understand how much more CO2 there is than Methane and N2O the following graph(6) plots the concentrations of the three most important GHGs. Note that CO2 is plotted in PPM (i.e. parts per MILLION) while Methane and N2O are plotted in PPB (i.e. parts per BILLION) – so the graph values are 1000 times greater for CO2.

We also have water vapor, which is a very effective absorber of heat energy in the air, but it does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as the other greenhouse gases. Water vapor stays in the atmosphere only a very short time (from a few hours to a few days) before it leaves the atmosphere as precipitation: rain or snow. But we also know that the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere increases as the atmosphere gets warmer, so water vapor is usually considered to act as part of a feedback loop, rather than a direct cause of climate change(7). Some ask, whether these are just natural fluctuations in our climate as the earth has known before, as previous records of ice ages and inter-glacial warmer periods indicate. But we have truly entered the age of the Anthropocene, where human activity is driving planetary changes in the fundamental processes that make up the miracle of our life-bearing ecology. NASA has published a lot of data that shows that the processes are human-driven(8). In particular, the following graph shows the dramatic GHG emissions since the industrial revolution and the huge acceleration since the 1950s. NASA developed this graph based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased significantly since the Industrial Revolution(9). The UN Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Recognition of the scientifically validated trends in the growth of the GHGs and the potential risks of climate change resulted in the adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)(10) which was signed in 1992 and entered into force in 1994. The international community created a special body to study and report on the issues related to climate change. It is known as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).(11) These IPCC reports which include the reports of three working groups(12) and a synthesis report, as well as additional reports on special topics are the most important scientific documents produced for decision makers and the interested public, and they are the result of unprecedented global scientific cooperation(13). The findings of these reports are largely endorsed by all the scientific academies and research institutions in the world. And, based on 30 years of such assessments, we know that the primary cause of these problems is global warming that is driven by the continued emission of Green House Gases(14) (GHGs) primarily due to our continued use of fossil fuels and our other economic activities, from cutting down forests, to the way we manage our agriculture. We Are Facing An Existential Challenge: Today, there is no doubt that humanity is on a dangerous trajectory. Continued emissions of GHGs is taking us towards more global warming and its dangerous consequences. The IPCC report (AR6) of 2021 shows that: …we’ve currently reached 1.1°C above the average temperatures from 1850-1900. Not in 125,000 years has earth seen a time period with such a high average temperature for such a prolonged period of time, indicating that this is more than just a natural heat spike…This is coupled with reporting that atmospheric CO2 is at a 2,000,000-year peak and that other greenhouse gasses like methane and nitrous oxide are at 800,000-year peaks(15). [emphasis mine] Our activities produce several GHGs that help create the greenhouse effect that retains and increases the heat in our atmosphere...