Ruth / Hannon Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems

Erscheinungsjahr 2012
ISBN: 978-1-4612-2268-2
Verlag: Springer US
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 341 Seiten, eBook

Reihe: Modeling Dynamic Systems

The frontiers of physical science and technology commanded attention dur ing the last two centuries. In the next century lies the frontier of better un derstanding of the behavior of social and economic systems. Ruth and Hannon join many other pioneers exploring this new frontier. By building on the profession of system dynamics, Ruth and Hannon con tribute to movement away from purely mental models, which necessarily lack adequate precision, toward more insightful and disciplined computer simulation models. The STELLA software used in this book is one of several computer applications created to implement the concepts of system dynam ics, a discipline that has been developed over the last 40 years and now ex tends into many fields of activity. System dynamics is beginning, even in kindergarten through 12th grade education, to provide a rigorous founda tion for dealing with dynamic change in mathematics, physics, social stud ies, environment, history, and even literature. Education at every level will be changing from teaching isolated facts to allowing students to explore those systems within which facts, policies, and individual relationships are embedded to develop their ability to think in terms of dynamic systems. This book includes elementary instruction in system dynamics modeling and in the STELLA software. It covers a wide range of material from simple building blocks of systems to models and mathematics of considerable complexity. The material opens many avenues for further exploration, re finement, and simplification.

Zielgruppe

Graduate

Autoren/Hrsg.

Ruth, Matthias

Hannon, Bruce

Weitere Mitwirkende

Forrester, Jay W.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1 Introduction.- 1 Modeling Dynamic Systems.- 2 Disaggregation of Stocks.- 2 Methods for Dynamic Modeling.- 3 System Boundaries in Space and Time.- 4 Scheduling Flows.- 5 Positive Feedback in the Economy.- 6 Derivatives and Lags.- 3 Microeconomic Models of Firms.- 7 Introduction to Modeling Economic Processes.- 8 Substitution of Inputs in Production.- 9 Time Value.- 10 Opportunity Cost.- 11 The Profit-Maximizing Competitive Firm.- 12 The Profit-Maximizing Monopoly.- 13 Monopolistic Collusion.- 14 Quasi-Competitive Equilibrium.- 15 Modeling Economic Games.- 4 Modeling Optimal Use of Nonrenewable Resources.- 16 Competitive Scarcity.- 17 Competitive Scarcity with Substitution.- 18 Competitive Scarcity with Cost Dependent on Production Rate and Resource Size.- 19 Competitive Scarcity with Technical Change.- 20 Competitive Scarcity with Exploration.- 21 Monopoly Scarcity.- 22 Monopoly Scarcity with Variable Interest Rate.- 23 Monopoly Scarcity with Cost Dependent on Production Rate and Resource Size.- 5 Modeling Optimal Use of Renewable Resources.- 24 Optimal Timber Harvest.- 25 Managing Open Access Resources.- 26 Optimal Harvest from Fisheries.- 27 Predator—Prey Models of Fisheries.- 28 Spatial Fishery Model.- 6 Chaos in Economic Models.- 29 Preference Cycles and Chaos.- 30 Nonmonotonic Demand and Supply Curves.- 31 Price Expectation and Production Lags.- 32 Chaos in Macroeconomic Models.- 7 Conclusions.- 33 Building a Modeling Community.- A1 Installation Instructions for Macintosh Version.- A2 Installation Instructions for Windows Version.- A3 Quick Help Guide.- A3.1 Overview of STELLA Operating Environment.- A3.2 Drawing an Inflow to a Stock.- A3.3 Drawing an Outflow from a Stock.- A3.4 Replacing a Cloud with a Stock.- A3.5 Bending Flow Pipes.- A3.6 Repositioning FlowPipes.- A3.7 Reversing Direction of a Flow.- A3.8 Flow Define Dialog—Builtins.- A3.9 Moving Variable Names.- A3.10 Drawing Connectors.- A3.11 Defining Graphs and Tables.- A3.12 Dynamite Operations on Graphs and Tables.- MADONNA Quick Start.- B1 Installation of MADONNA `.- B2 Example: Harmonic Oscillator.- B2.1 Writing the Model Equations.- B2.2 Compiling the Model.- B2.3 Running the Model.- B2.4 The Graph Window.- B2.5 Multiple Runs.- References.