Powell The Trader's Guide to the Euro Area

Economic Indicators, the ECB and the Euro Crisis
1. Auflage 2013
ISBN: 978-1-118-44003-2
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 216 Seiten, E-Book

Reihe: Bloomberg Professional

The euro area remains in a state of flux and appears to beunsustainable in its present form. The outcome of the crisis may beunknown for years and a judgement on the project's success orfailure may be out of reach for decades.
In the meantime, analysts, portfolio managers and traders willstill have daily, weekly, quarterly and annual benchmarks. Theywill have to analyze economic developments in the euro area andtheir impacts on financial assets. The objective of this book is toprovide a framework for that analysis that is comprehensible tomost financial market participants.
The book begins with a focus on coincident and leading economicindicators for the euro area. The following section looks ateuro-area institutions. The next chapter focuses on the eurocrisis. It attempts to provide an explanation of its origins and aglimpse of the potential outcomes. In addition, the tools needed toanalyze the crisis as it evolves are presented. The lastsections provide information unique to the economies of Germany,France, the U.K., Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Powell, David J.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Acknowledgements ix
CHAPTER 1
Introduction 1
CHAPTER 2
Gross Domestic Product 5
The Expenditure Approach 5
The Output Method 10
The Income Method 11
GNP vs. GDP 11
Release Schedule 12
Trend Growth 15
The Business Cycle 16
Monetary Conditions Index 19
Effects of Monetary Policy on GDP 19
Effects of the Exchange Rate on GDP 21
Exchange-Rate Defl ators 23
CHAPTER 3
Coincident Indicators 27
PMI Surveys 27
Industrial Production 31
CHAPTER 4
Leading Indicators 35
Financial Conditions Index 35
The U.S. Business Cycle 38
ZEW Survey 39
Ifo Survey 41
M1 Money Supply Growth 52
CHAPTER 5
Inflation Measures 57
Consumer Price Index 57
Producer Price Index 63
Labor Costs 65
Money Supply 68
Inflation Expectations 76
CHAPTER 6
The European Central Bank 83
Traffic Light System 86
Mandate 88
Two-Pillar Strategy 90
Monetary Policy Implementation 91
Intervention in the Currency Markets 93
Taylor Rule 95
CHAPTER 7
Other Institutions 101
Council of the European Union 101
European Parliament 102
European Commission 102
Ecofin 103
Eurogroup 103
European Council 104
CHAPTER 8
Euro Crisis 105
Origins 105
Optimal Currency Area Th eory 109
Fiscal Consolidation 111
Quantitative and Qualitative Easing 112
Government Bond Purchases 115
Measures of National Solvency 117
Target2 Balances 121
Resolution 123
Departure from the Euro Area 127
Tools for Analyzing Debt Sustainability 127
CHAPTER 9
Germany 133
Labor Market 133
Political Institutions 137
Political Parties 139
CHAPTER 10
France 143
CHAPTER 11
United Kingdom 145
The Bank of England 145
Quantitative Easing 153
GDP 155
Inflation Measures 157
House Prices 158
Political Institutions 164
CHAPTER 12
Switzerland 167
The Swiss National Bank 167
KOF Leading Indicator 168
CHAPTER 13
Sweden 171
CHAPTER 14
Norway 175
Bibliography 179
Index 197