Petersen Simulating Nature

A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and Policy Advice, Second Edition
2. Auflage 2012
ISBN: 978-1-4665-0067-9
Verlag: Taylor & Francis
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 224 Seiten

Computer simulation has become an important means for obtaining knowledge about nature. The practice of scientific simulation and the frequent use of uncertain simulation results in public policy raise a wide range of philosophical questions. Most prominently highlighted is the field of anthropogenic climate change—are humans currently changing the climate?
Referring to empirical results from science studies and political science, Simulating Nature: A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and Policy Advice, Second Edition addresses questions about the types of uncertainty associated with scientific simulation and about how these uncertainties can be communicated.
The author, who participated in the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plenaries in 2001 and 2007, discusses the assessment reports and workings of the IPCC. This second edition reflects the latest developments in climate change policy, including a thorough update and rewriting of sections that refer to the IPCC.

Zielgruppe

Researchers and postgraduate students in philosophy, climate science, statistics, and the social sciences; policymakers in government; general audience interested in climate change.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Petersen, Arthur C.

Fachgebiete

• Geowissenschaften Umweltwissenschaften Umweltpolitik, Umweltprotokoll
• Geowissenschaften Geologie Meteorologie, Klimatologie
• Geowissenschaften Umweltwissenschaften Umweltsoziologie, Umweltpsychologie, Umweltethik
• Technische Wissenschaften Technik Allgemein Modellierung & Simulation
• Geowissenschaften Umweltwissenschaften Klimawandel, Globale Erwärmung
• Geisteswissenschaften Philosophie Angewandte Ethik & Soziale Verantwortung Umweltethik, Umweltphilosophie
• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Regierungspolitik Umwelt- und Gesundheitspolitik

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Introduction
Background
Framing of the Problem
Defining Computer Simulation and Positioning It in Science
Philosophical Approach
Brief Outline of This Study

Simulation Practice, Uncertainty, and Policy Advice
The Practice of Scientific Simulation
Introduction
The Simulation Laboratory
Elements of Simulation-Laboratory Practice
Plurality of Methodologies for Model Development and Evaluation
Plurality of Values in Simulation Practice
The Practices of Simulation and Experimentation Compared
Conclusion

A Typology of Uncertainty in Scientific Simulation
Introduction
Locations of Simulation Uncertainty
The Nature of Simulation Uncertainty
The Range of Simulation Uncertainty
Recognised Ignorance in Simulation
The Methodological Unreliability of Simulation
Value Diversity in Simulation Practice
The Uncertainties of Simulation and Experimentation Compared
Conclusion

Assessment of Simulation Uncertainty for Policy Advice
Introduction
The Sound Science Debate
The Challenge of Postnormal Science
The Role of Simulation Uncertainty in Policy Advice
The Guidance on Uncertainty Assessment and Communication
Conclusion

The Case of Simulating Climate Change
The Practice of Climate Simulation
Introduction
Functions of Climate Simulation
Varying Climate-Model Concreteness
The Sociopolitical Context of Climate-Simulation Practice
Evaluating the Plurality of Climate-Simulation Models
Conclusion

Uncertainties in Climate Simulation
Introduction
A General Overview of Uncertainty in Climate Simulation
Climate-Simulation Uncertainty and the Causal
Attribution of Temperature Change
Conclusion

Assessments of Climate-Simulation Uncertainty for Policy Advice
Introduction
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Its Communication of Climate-Simulation Uncertainty
An Example of Exploiting Societal Perspectives to Communicate Climate-Simulation Uncertainty
Conclusion

Conclusions
Uncertainty Associated with Scientific Simulation
Differences and Similarities between Simulation and Experimental Uncertainty
Assessment and Communication of Scientific Simulation Uncertainties in Science-for-Policy
Uncertainty Associated with the Simulation-Based Attribution of Climate Change to Human Influences
Assessment and Communication of Attribution Uncertainty by the ipcc

References

Appendix: Proceedings and Discussion of the IPCC Contact Group
Meeting on Attribution, 20 January 2001, Shanghai
Index