Design Decisions under Uncertainty with Limited Information

1. Auflage 2011
ISBN: 978-0-415-49247-8
Verlag: CRC Press

Buch, Englisch, 538 Seiten, Format (B × H): 174 mm x 246 mm, Gewicht: 1111 g

Reihe: Structures and Infrastructures

Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker’s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence.

This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker’s risk attitude.

The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches.

This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.

Zielgruppe

Postgraduate, Professional, and Professional Practice & Development

Autoren/Hrsg.

Nikolaidis, Efstratios

Mourelatos, Zissimos P.

Pandey, Vijitashwa

Fachgebiete

• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Unternehmensforschung
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Operations Research
• Technische Wissenschaften Maschinenbau | Werkstoffkunde Maschinenbau Konstruktionslehre, Bauelemente, CAD
• Technische Wissenschaften Technik Allgemein Konstruktionslehre und -technik

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Editorial, About the Book Series Editor, Preface, About the Authors, 1. Design Decision under Uncertainty, 2. Overview of Theories of Uncertainty and Tools for Modeling Uncertainty, 3. Objective Probability, 4. Statistical Inference – Constructing Probabilistic Models from Observations, 5. Probabilistic Analysis of Dynamic Systems, 6. Subjective (Bayesian) Probability, 7. Decision Analysis, 8. Multiattribute Considerations in Design, Questions and Exercises, Glossary, References, Structures and Infrastructures Series

Über Autor(innen)

Zissimos P. Mourelatos, Efstratios Nikolaidis, Vijitashwa Pandey