Buch, Englisch, 204 Seiten, Format (B × H): 152 mm x 234 mm, Gewicht: 476 g
Modelling the impacts of global warming and ozone depletion
Buch, Englisch, 204 Seiten, Format (B × H): 152 mm x 234 mm, Gewicht: 476 g
ISBN: 978-1-85383-523-0
Verlag: Taylor & Francis Ltd (Sales)
'Understanding how complex ecological and climatic change can influence human health is the new challenge before us. The book confronts these multidimensional risk assessments head-on and will catalyse the important interdisciplinary and integrated approach that is the new paradigm now required for environmental and public health research.'
Dr JONATHAN PATZ
Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health
'This book provides a sturdy foundation for thinking about how best to tackle a varied spectrum of population health hazards posed by different aspects and combinations of global change processes it alsogoes that extra mile by estimating the attributable population burdens of disease or mortality that are likely to result from these aspects of global change. It is heartening to see the results of this mathematical modeling being presented in policy-relevant terms.'
From the Foreword by
TONY McMICHAEL
Health and Climate Change is the first major study of the potentially devastating health impacts of the global atmospheric changes which are under way. Using the best available data, the author presents models of the most plausible future courses of vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis; skin cancer caused by nozone depletion; and cardiovascular and respiratory disorders caused by higher temperatures.
Current epidemiological research methods are not well adapted to analysing complex systems influenced by human intervention, or more simple processes calculated to take place within the distant future. Health and Climate Change proposes a new paradigm of integrated eco-epidemiological models for these areas of study. It will be essential reading for those concerned with public health and epidemiology, environmental studies, climate change and development studies.
Originally published in 1998
Autoren/Hrsg.
Fachgebiete
Weitere Infos & Material
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Boxes
Foreword by Tony McMichael
Preface
1. Introduction
The Issue
Scope and Objectives
Outline
2. An Eco-Epidemiological Modelling Approach
Introduction
Limitations of Conventional Epidemiology
Eco-Epidemiological Modelling
Discussion
3. Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases
Introduction
The Vectors and Their Diseases
Epidemic Potential
Climate Effects
Malaria Prevalence
Climate Scenarios
Changes in Potential Risk Areas
Changes in Malaria Prevalence
Local Estimates: Model Validation
Model Limitations and Uncertainties
Discussion and Conclusions
4. Modelling Malaria as a Complex Adaptive System
Introduction
The Genetic Algorithm
Modelling Adaptation by Genetic Algorithms
Modelling Experiments
Discussion and Conclusions
5. Climate Change, Thermal Stress and Morality Changes
Introduction
Health Impact Assessment
Thermal Stress in a Number of Cities
Cardiovascular Mortality and Sensitivity to Adaptation
Discussion and Conclusions
6. The Impact of Ozone Depletion on Skin Cancer Incidence
Introduction
Modelling the Cause-Effect Chain
Ozone Depletion and Skin Cancer Risk in the Netherlands and Australia
Uncertainties
Discussion and Conclusions
7. Discussion and Conclusions
Introduction
Major Findings
Future Research lines
Epilogue
References
Index
