Kunc System Dynamics

Soft and Hard Operational Research
1. Auflage 2018
ISBN: 978-1-349-95257-1
Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 492 Seiten

Reihe: OR Essentials

This book presents some of the most important papers published in Palgrave's Journal of Operational Research relating to the use of System Dynamics (SD) in the context of Operational Research (OR). Giving the reader an in-depth understanding of significant features of the research area which have grown over the last 20 years: applications in the management field; methodologies; policies at industry level; and healthcare, this book is an invaluable read for those who do not have any prior expertise in the field. Split into four parts, the collection covers the broad use of SD in the field of management, focuses on the use of modelling in supply chains and at industry level, and presents an analysis of the use of SD in its most promising area, healthcare. Not only does this work provide a detailed overview of the field of SD, but it will also offer vital insights into potential research avenues for the future considering the use of SD as a soft OR and hard OR method.

Martin Kunc is Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, UK. Before joining academia and teaching in top business schools in the UK and Latin America, Martin was a consultant in the areas of SD and strategic management. He has published over 60 articles, books, book chapters and conference papers. 

Autoren/Hrsg.

Kunc, Martin

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Contents;6
2;List of Figures;9
3;List of Tables;16
4;Introduction;19
4.1; Introduction;19
4.2; The Case for the Soft Perspective in System Dynamics;22
4.3; The Case for the Hard Perspective in System Dynamics;23
4.4; A Historical Perspective of the System Dynamics Field in Terms of Hard and  Soft Contributions from the Publications in Journal of the Operational Research Society;25
4.5; The Book Content;27
4.6; Conclusion;32
4.7; Appendix;33
4.8;References;45
5;Part I: Applications of System Dynamics in Management;48
5.1;Resetting the Clock: A Feedback Approach to the Dynamics of Organisational Inertia, Survival and Change;49
5.1.1; Introduction;49
5.1.2; A Feedback View of Organisational Inertia and Change;52
5.1.2.1; Structural Inertia Theory;52
5.1.2.2; Resetting the Clock: A Feedback Model;55
5.1.2.3; From Feedback Loops to Dynamic Models;59
5.1.3; Methods;64
5.1.3.1; Simulating Organisational Theories;65
5.1.4; Results;67
5.1.5; Discussion and Conclusions;73
5.1.6; Appendix: Model Equations and Documentation;78
5.1.7;References;81
5.2;Management Attitudes, Learning and Scale in Successful Diversification: A Dynamic and Behavioural Resource System View;85
5.2.1; Introduction;85
5.2.2; Model of FocusCo, the Focuser;87
5.2.3; Model of DiversiCo, the Diversifier;89
5.2.4; A Closer Look at FocusCo;91
5.2.4.1; Resources, Investment and Depreciation in the Core Business;91
5.2.4.2; Return on the Core Business;92
5.2.5; A Closer Look at DiversiCo;93
5.2.5.1; The Trigger for Diversification;93
5.2.5.2; Management’s Perception of Non-core Performance;93
5.2.5.3; Investment Policy and Assets in the Non-core Business;95
5.2.5.4; Disruption from Diversification and Its Effects on Performance;96
5.2.6; Simulation Experiments on Diversification;98
5.2.6.1; Experiment 1: FocusCo Faces a Sharp Downturn in Tyre Demand;98
5.2.6.2; Experiment 2: DiversiCo Faces a Downturn in Tyre Industry Demand;100
5.2.6.3; Comparing Performance—DiversiCo vs FocusCo;102
5.2.6.4; Experiment 3: DiversiCo Faces a Downturn in Tyre Demand and Is Lured into ‘Excess’ Diversification by Over-optimism;106
5.2.6.5; Experiment 4: Non-core Growth and the Trade-Off Between Confidence and Learning;108
5.2.7; Conclusions;111
5.2.8; Appendix 1;113
5.2.9; Appendix 2;114
5.2.10; Appendix 3;115
5.2.11; Appendix 4;116
5.2.12; Appendix 5: Part 1;117
5.2.12.1; Appendix 5: Part 2;118
5.2.13; Appendix 6: Part 1;119
5.2.13.1; Appendix 6: Part 2;119
5.2.14;References;121
5.3;Relevance Assumed: A Case Study of Balanced Scorecard Development Using System Dynamics;123
5.3.1; Introduction;124
5.3.2; Current BSC Theory and Practice;125
5.3.3; System Dynamics as a Modelling Method for BSC Development;128
5.3.4; The Case Study;130
5.3.5; Qualitative Model Structure;134
5.3.6; Quantitative Model Structure;136
5.3.6.1; Flow of Cases;137
5.3.6.2; Flow of Employees;137
5.3.7; Model Analysis;138
5.3.8; Overall Performance: Gradual Progress, But First Worse-Before-Better;139
5.3.8.1; Existing Policies Insufficient for Swift Progress;139
5.3.8.2; Unclear Benefits from Proposed Policies;141
5.3.8.3; Unexpected Leverage from a Counter-Intuitive Policy;142
5.3.9; Discussion;143
5.3.9.1; Limitations: Modelling of ‘Mental Models’, Not of the ‘Real World’;143
5.3.9.2; The Added Value of System Dynamics to BSC Development;144
5.3.10; Conclusion;145
5.3.11;References;146
5.4;Interpersonal Success Factors for  Strategy Implementation: A Case Study Using Group Model Building;149
5.4.1; Introduction;149
5.4.2; Strategy Development and Implementation;150
5.4.2.1; Implementation Success Factors;151
5.4.2.1.1; Communication Quality;152
5.4.2.1.2; Insight;152
5.4.2.1.3; Consensus;153
5.4.2.1.4; Commitment;153
5.4.2.2; Open Issues in Strategy Implementation;153
5.4.3; Group Model Building and Strategy;154
5.4.4; Case Study;155
5.4.4.1; Survey Questionnaire;158
5.4.5; Results;161
5.4.5.1; Survey Results from Likert Questions;161
5.4.5.2; Survey Results Comparing Group Model Building to a ‘Normal Meeting’;162
5.4.5.3; Survey Results Relating to Different Workshop Elements;163
5.4.5.4; Relationship Between Demographic Data and Survey Results;163
5.4.5.5; Open Questions;164
5.4.5.6; Post-workshop Events;166
5.4.6; Discussion;166
5.4.6.1; Limitations of the Case Study;169
5.4.7;References;170
6;Part II: Methodological Developments;179
6.1;An Overview of Strategy and Tactics in System Dynamics Optimization;180
6.1.1; Introduction;180
6.1.2; The Nature of System Dynamics Optimization;181
6.1.2.1; Optimization to Fit Data;181
6.1.2.2; Policy Optimization to Improve System Performance;182
6.1.3; Optimization Techniques: Optimal Control;182
6.1.4; Optimization Techniques: Algorithmic Search;183
6.1.4.1; History of Pattern Search in System Dynamics;184
6.1.4.2; Tactics for Search-Based Optimization;186
6.1.5; Calibration Issues;191
6.1.5.1; Defining the Objective Function;191
6.1.5.2; Calibrating the Direct Search Approach;193
6.1.6; Optimization by Direct Search: Examples;194
6.1.6.1; Mathematical Curve Fitting;195
6.1.6.2; Comparison Between Direct Search and Optimal Control;197
6.1.6.3; Aggregate Production Planning;199
6.1.6.4; A Problem with Spatial and Dynamic Elements;201
6.1.6.5; Fitting an AIDS Model to Data;202
6.1.7; Conclusions;204
6.1.8; Appendix: Listing of DYSMOD Run for the Navigation Problem;205
6.1.9;References;208
6.2;Simulation by Repeated Optimisation;212
6.2.1; Introduction;212
6.2.2; The System Response and the Parameter Plane;214
6.2.3; Hill-Climbing Optimisation;216
6.2.4; Overcoming the Limitations of Heuristic Algorithms;217
6.2.5; The Performance of a Simple Model;218
6.2.6; Formulating an Objective Function;220
6.2.7; The Significance of the Objective Function;221
6.2.8; Optimisation Experiments;222
6.2.9; Simulation by Repeated Optimisation;225
6.2.10; Objective Functions for Constrained Optimisation;226
6.2.11; Constrained Optimisation—A Case Example;228
6.2.12; Constrained Optimisation and Marginal Investments;229
6.2.13; Concluding Remarks;231
6.2.14;References;232
6.3;Judgement and Supply Chain Dynamics;234
6.3.1; Introduction;234
6.3.2; Research Background;237
6.3.2.1; Judgemental Interventions in Supply Chain Management;237
6.3.2.2; Factors Influencing the Bullwhip Effect;239
6.3.2.3; System Dynamics Modelling of Supply Chains;242
6.3.3; Experimental Structure;245
6.3.4; Model Description;250
6.3.4.1; Performance Measurement;256
6.3.5; Analysis of Results;257
6.3.6; Conclusions and Extensions;264
6.3.6.1; Further Research;268
6.3.7; Appendix: Model Equations;269
6.3.8;References;273
6.4;Comparing Discrete-Event Simulation and System Dynamics: Users’ Perceptions;276
6.4.1; Introduction;276
6.4.2; Existing Work on the Comparison of DES and SD Model Use;277
6.4.2.1; Understanding;278
6.4.2.2; Complexity;278
6.4.2.3; Model Validity;279
6.4.2.4; Model Usefulness;279
6.4.2.5; Model Results;280
6.4.2.6; Summary of Previous Comparison Work;281
6.4.3; Methods and Research Design;281
6.4.3.1; The Case Study;283
6.4.3.2; The Simulation Models;285
6.4.3.3; The Subjects;292
6.4.3.4; The Sessions;293
6.4.3.5; The Questionnaire;293
6.4.4; Survey Results;294
6.4.4.1; Respondents Profiles;295
6.4.4.2; Comparing the Level of Understanding Using the DES and SD Model;297
6.4.4.3; Factors that Help in Model Understanding;299
6.4.4.4; Model Complexity;300
6.4.4.5; Model Validity;302
6.4.4.6; Model Usefulness;303
6.4.4.7; Model Results;305
6.4.4.8; Summary of Results;307
6.4.5; Discussion and Concluding Remarks;310
6.4.6;References;312
7;Part III: Applications of System Dynamics at Industry Level;315
7.1;Modelling the Sustainability of Mass Tourism in Island Tourist Economies;316
7.1.1; Introduction;316
7.1.2; Conventional Regression Tourism Demand Models;318
7.1.3; A Generic System Dynamics Model of an Island Tourist Destination;319
7.1.3.1; Preliminary Conceptualisation of the Model;319
7.1.3.2; Basic Structure of the Generic Tourism Model;321
7.1.3.3; Model Testing to Improve Users’ Confidence;323
7.1.4; Policy Analysis Based Futures for Mass Tourism;326
7.1.4.1; Changing Charter Flight Arrivals;327
7.1.4.2; A Tourist Tax?;329
7.1.4.3; Restricting the Construction of New Budget Hotels;331
7.1.4.4; Discussion;333
7.1.5; Conclusions;335
7.1.6;References;337
7.2;Modelling for Policy Assessment in the Natural Gas Industry;341
7.2.1; Introduction;341
7.2.2; Modelling the Natural Gas Industry;344
7.2.2.1; Dynamics of Discoveries;345
7.2.2.2; Costs and Technology;347
7.2.3; Transportation;349
7.2.4; Integration of Models and Policy Analysis;351
7.2.5; Model Validation;354
7.2.6; Policy Assessment;356
7.2.6.1; Gas Demand and Substitution of Gasoline in Transportation;356
7.2.6.2; Emissions Control;360
7.2.6.3; Effect of the Gas Transport Network on the Market;360
7.2.7; Conclusions;362
7.2.8;References;363
7.3;Understanding the Drivers of Broadband Adoption: The Case of Rural and Remote Scotland;366
7.3.1; Introduction;366
7.3.2; Broadband;367
7.3.3; Scotland;370
7.3.4; Broadband Availability;371
7.3.5; Broadband Adoption;373
7.3.6; New Product Diffusion;374
7.3.7; Broadband Literature and Interviews;375
7.3.7.1; Decision Criteria Function;377
7.3.7.2; Potential Adopters;380
7.3.7.3; Advertising;381
7.3.7.4; The Impact of Policies on the Causal Diagram;382
7.3.8; Simulation Model;385
7.3.8.1; Model Structure;385
7.3.8.2; Populating the Model with Data;388
7.3.8.3; System Dynamics Model Output;389
7.3.9; Policy Discussion;393
7.3.10; Conclusions and Future Research;394
7.3.11;References;396
8;Part IV: System Dynamics in Healthcare;400
8.1;System Dynamics Mapping of Acute Patient Flows;401
8.1.1; Introduction;401
8.1.2; Initiating the Project;402
8.1.3; Project Purpose and Scope;404
8.1.4; Designing an Approach: Practical Constraints and Methodological Issues;405
8.1.5; Preliminary Activities;407
8.1.6; Conceptual Framework for NHS Resources and Pathways;409
8.1.7; Running the Workshops;413
8.1.8; Post-workshop Activities;416
8.1.9; Project Outputs;419
8.1.10; Beyond the Project;422
8.1.11;References;423
8.2;Improving the Cost-Effectiveness of Chlamydia Screening with Targeted Screening Strategies;426
8.2.1; Introduction;426
8.2.2; Analysis of the Opportunistic Screening Data;429
8.2.3; Geomapping Analysis;437
8.2.4; Socio-economic Indicators and Prediction;442
8.2.5; Simulation Modelling of Infection Dynamics and Costs-Effectiveness;447
8.2.6; Conclusions and Policy Implications;451
8.2.7;References;453
8.3;Competitive Dynamics in Pharmaceutical Markets: A Case Study in the Chronic Cardiac Disease Market;455
8.3.1; Introduction;455
8.3.2; Reforming Healthcare Policies—An Evolutionary Process;456
8.3.3; Using System Dynamics Modelling in Health Care;457
8.3.3.1; Problem Articulation and Dynamic Hypothesis;458
8.3.3.2; Formulation and Testing;462
8.3.3.3; Policy Formulation and Evaluation;464
8.3.4; Facilitating the Development of Drug Regulation Through Modelling and Experimentation;470
8.3.5; Conclusions;473
8.3.6;References;475
9;Index;479