Krammer How to analyze and compare scenarios? Evaluation of scenarios dealing with the future of our energy system: DESERTEC, EU-Roadmap 2050, Greenpeace [R]evolution, World Energy Outlook & Shell Energy Scenarios

1. Auflage 2013
ISBN: 978-3-95489-559-5
Verlag: Anchor Academic Publishing
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 47 Seiten

Right now, our energy system is highly dependent on fossil sources. This dependency causes two major problems: First, it causes the scarcity of these non-renewable energy sources, and climate change. There are two alternatives to fossil energy sources that are on the one hand, nuclear energy, and on the other hand, renewable energy sources. The process of nuclear energy is fascinating for the energy outcome of one kilogram of uranium equals the stored energy of about 3.000 tons of coal. Nuclear energy can reduce the problems that cause climate change for, the process is carbon neutral but, it leads to several other problems as nuclear proliferation, incidents, and the unsolved problem of waste disposal. Renewable energy sources are carbon neutral, and by definition renewable, and therefore, they could solve both major problems of the energy sector. Right now, the drawbacks are at first that most of them are not competitive, and need to be subsidized by governments, and second, the technical challenge to store the produced energy. It is easy to understand that the future of the energy sector is highly uncertain, and that under these circumstances, tools are of no use as far as they are extrapolating past trends. In the last years, several energy scenarios have been conducted in order to display the major uncertainties. It is not surprising that the results are strongly varying, and therefore, the results lead to the question of the characteristics and the quality of the scenarios. But, there has been no analysis of the characteristics and the quality of energy scenarios so far. However, the author analyzes these in this study. The author begins with a short introduction about the history of scenarios, and continues with the development of a general framework of the scenario development process. Further, he lists its possible variations. The scenario typology that consists of 15 variables that can be used to examine the characteristics and the quality of scenarios is then applied at a total of 5 scenarios. The sample of scenarios was chosen to display the broad range of different scenario developers. It consists of the DESERTEC scenario of a charitable trust, the EU-Roadmap 2050 of a political institution, the Greenpeace [R]evolution of an NGO, the World Energy Outlook of an intergovernmental institution, and the Shell Energy scenarios of a company that deal within the energy sector.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Krammer, Stefan

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;How to analyze and compare scenarios?;1
1.1;Table of Contents;5
1.2;List of figures;7
1.3;List of abbreviations;8
1.4;1 Introduction;9
1.5;2 Scenarios;11
1.5.1;2.1 History;11
1.5.2;2.2 Scenario Development: A General Framework;13
1.5.2.1;2.2.1 Purpose;14
1.5.2.2;2.2.2 System Analysis;14
1.5.2.3;2.2.3 Modelling;15
1.5.2.4;2.2.4 Selecting;17
1.5.2.5;2.2.5 Communication;18
1.5.2.6;2.2.6 Application;19
1.5.3;2.3 Characteristics of Scenarios;19
1.5.3.1;2.3.1 Variations in Purpose;20
1.5.3.2;2.3.2 Variations in System Analysis;23
1.5.3.3;2.3.3 Variations in Modelling;24
1.5.3.4;2.3.4 Variations in Selecting;25
1.5.3.5;2.3.5 Variations in Communication;28
1.5.3.6;2.3.6 Variations in Application;28
1.5.3.7;2.3.6 Variations in Application;28
1.5.3.8;2.3.7 Scenario typology;30
1.5.4;2.4 Energy Scenarios;30
1.5.4.1;2.4.1 DESERTEC;31
1.5.4.2;2.4.2 EU-Roadmap 2050;33
1.5.4.3;2.4.3 Greenpeace [R]evolution;35
1.5.4.4;2.4.4 World Energy Outlook 2011;38
1.5.4.5;2.4.5 Shell Energy Scenarios;40
1.6;3 Conclusion;44
1.7;References;45

Leseproben

Text sample: Chapter 2.3.4.2, Level of deviation: The level of deviation refers to the range of possible futures that are taken in account: • Focused scenarios focus on a very small area of all the possible futures, usually only on one single scenario. Again it has to be scrutinized if the description of the future state is a scenario or a pure forecast, which is extrapolating past trends. The advantages of focused scenarios are that all the resources can be concentrated to one scenario and a simplified communication. However the focus on only one scenario is regarded to contradict the initial purpose of scenarios, of being a method able to deal with a high level of uncertainty. • Planning focused scenarios deal with multiple scenarios, but focussing on a certain area. These scenarios are usually the starting point of strategy development. • Alternative scenarios try to map all possible futures. Hence the scenarios are differing significantly from each other. These scenarios are usually developed to raise awareness of the uncertainties and to experiment with varying ideas. 2.3.4.3, Estimation of probability: Depending if the different key variables can be attached with certain probabilities the scenarios can the distinguished in prognoses and projections. • Prognosis scenarios are attached with at least a subjective probability of occurrence. They are a deviation of the general framework and are contradicting most definitions of scenarios. Therefore it has to be scrutinized if the prognosis scenario is a scenario or rather a forecast. • Projections do not include any calculus of probabilities. The absence of probabilities is justified because of its low informational value, especially at complex underlying systems and because of methodical challenges. 2.3.5, Variations in Communication: The communication of scenarios varies according the effort that is put in the flow of information of the published scenarios. 2.3.5.1, Effort of communication: Depending on the effort of communication, low effort, medium effort and high effort communication can be distinguished: • Low effort communication is characterized solely by the usage of a memorable title for the scenario. There is no description of the storyline from the present to the possible future state. Since most definitions of scenarios also include the trajectory line to the possible future state it can be doubted if these are high-quality scenarios. • Medium-effort communication is developing next to the title also a storyline, which is a narrative link of the past with hypothetical events in the future. Hence it is a description of a possible path of to the future. The storyline has to be transparent and internally consistent. Predetermined elements have to be reflected in each storyline. • High-effort communication is developing next to the storyline further tools, as diagrams describing the differences of the scenarios, a list of the quantified key variables and indicators, a System Dynamics Approach to quantify the storyline and validations and judgements by experts. 2.3.6, Variations in Application: The application of scenarios is leading to concrete actions according to the goals of the scenario user. 2.3.6.1, Preciseness of problem: Decisions which are justified by scenarios can rely on precise or on intuitive problems. Depending on the preciseness of the problem scenarios can be used either as decision and orientation projects: • Decision projects are using scenarios for the justification for the use of a certain action out of a set of already existing alternatives, which optimally suits the achievement of objectives. These scenarios have a direct effect on the formation of the organisational decisions. • Orientation projects on the other hand lead to a specification of general decision behaviours. These scenarios have a direct effect on the formation of mission statements, strategies and the development of action alternatives.