Kingsman Raw Materials Purchasing

An Operational Research Approach
1. Auflage 2014
ISBN: 978-1-4832-9726-2
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, Band Volume 4, 407 Seiten, Web PDF

Reihe: Frontiers of Operational FORS

A systematic study of commodity purchasing analysed from an operational research viewpoint and based on numerous case studies.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Kingsman, B. G.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Front Cover;1
2;Raw Materials Purchasing: An Operational Research Approach;4
3;Copyright Page;5
4;Table of Contents;12
5;Dedication;6
6;Editor's Preface;8
7;Preface;9
8;Summary;16
9;Chapter 1. The Commodity Purchasing Context;22
9.1;1.1 The difficulties in commodity purchasing management;22
9.2;1.2 Commodity markets;27
9.3;1.3 Hedging and speculation;31
9.4;1.4 Informal markets and fuzzy prices;34
10;Chapter 2. Commodity Price Movements;37
10.1;2.1 Long-term price movements;37
10.2;2.2 Cocoa prices;39
10.3;2.3 Copper prices;40
10.4;2.4 Sugar prices;42
10.5;2.5 Short-term price movements;43
10.6;2.6 Trends or random walks in commodity prices;51
10.7;Appendix. A new model for daily commodity price movements;56
11;Chapter 3. Some Practical Buying Examples;62
11.1;3.1 A copper buying situation;62
11.2;3.2 A linseed oil buying situation;64
11.3;3.3 Maize buying situations;70
12;Chapter 4. The Components of the Commodity Purchasing Decision;77
12.1;4.1 Introduction;77
12.2;4.2 Determining future consumption requirements;81
12.3;4.3 Determining purchase orders and delivery schedules;83
12.4;4.4 The strategic buying period;92
12.5;4.5 The active buying period;98
12.6;4.6 The tactical buying problem;106
12.7;4.7 Assessing buyers' performance;112
12.8;Appendix — Case study: Adapting the active buying period for coco a 1969-72
;113
13;Chapter 5. Measuring Tactical Purchasing Performance;120
13.1;5.1 Possible measures for purchasing efficiency;120
13.2;5.2 An illustrative example of the purchasing efficiency calculations;124
13.3;5.3 The overall average purchasing efficiency;126
13.4;5.4 Possible 'mistakes' in calculating efficiency measures;130
13.5;5.5 A case study — Purchasing efficiency for maize 1969-74;133
13.6;5.6 A target or standard for purchasing performance;142
13.7;5.7 Alternative purchasing efficiency measures;145
13.8;Appendix . Overall average purchasing efficiency analysis;147
14;Chapter 6. Purchasing Partially Substitutable Basic Raw Materials— The Blending Problem;152
14.1;6.1 Introduction;152
14.2;6.2 The blending problem in theory;153
14.3;6.3 The problems at the formulation stage;156
14.4;6.4 The difficulties arising from the fluctuating prices of materials;157
14.5;6.5 The interaction of the fluctuating prices and the many different final products;160
14.6;6.6 The control of purchases problem;164
14.7;6.7 The blast furnace burdening problem — Case study 1;165
14.8;6.8 Extending the burdening model to cover several different blast furnaces;171
14.9;6.9 The animal feed mix problem — Case study 2;173
14.10;6.10 The nonferrous metal alloys purchasing problem — Case study 3;181
14.11;Appendix. The simplex method for linear programming;189
15;Chapter 7. Scheduling the Delivery of Linseed Oil Requirements;193
15.1;7.1 Definition of the purchasing problem;193
15.2;7.2 Company performance;199
15.3;7.3 The formulation of a model to give the delivery order schedule;202
15.4;7.4 The model solution — The determination of the delivery schedule;208
15.5;7.5 Updating and revising the DP model schedules;211
15.6;7.6 Alternative heuristic policies;215
15.7;7.7 Safety stocks to cover errors in forecasting future usages;217
16;Chapter 8. Medium-term Price Forecasting;220
16.1;8.1 Typ e of model needed;220
16.2;8.2 A conceptual model of a commodity market;222
16.3;8.3 An hypothesis for price determination in a commodity market;226
16.4;8.4 Market expectations;227
16.5;8.5 Market expectations and price movements;230
16.6;8.6 A market barometer;231
17;Chapter 9. A Market Barometer for World Linseed Prices;234
17.1;9.1 The linseed market situation;234
17.2;9.2 A market barometer for linseed;236
17.3;9.3 Linseed, linseed oil and linseed meal price relationships;242
17.4;9.4 Effect of the devaluation of the U.S. dollar;244
18;Chapter 10. Price Determination and Price Forecasting in the World Maize Market;248
18.1;10.1 The maize market world background situation;248
18.2;10.2 The U.S. government feedgrain subsidy and support programmes;251
18.3;10.3 A market barometer for maize;254
18.4;10.4 Market expectations;257
18.5;10.5 Price movements;261
18.6;10.6 Price determination and price forecasting models;265
18.7;10.7 The subsequent model performance;270
18.8;10.8 Forecasting prices beyond the end of the crop year;272
18.9;10.9 Use of the models for forecasting maize prices for the 1977/78 crop year;274
19;Chapter 11. Models for the Tactical Buying Problem;282
19.1;11.1 Introduction;282
19.2;11.2 Price chart patterns;285
19.3;11.3 Moving average and simple probability models;287
19.4;11.4 'Dollar averaging' as a purchasing policy;298
19.5;11.5 Early dynamic programming models;302
19.6;11.6 The dynamic programming model for stochastic prices and known demand;304
19.7;11.7 Several price offers during a period;315
19.8;11.8 Purchasing a single lot before a given deadline;315
19.9;11.9 Interpretation of the price breaks for purchasing a single lot;317
19.10;11.10 Price discounts;317
19.11;11.11 Extension of the initial model to nonstationary price distributions;318
19.12;11.12 Restricted supply or restricted purchase quantity situations;323
19.13;11.13 The stochastic demand situation;326
19.14;11.14 Taylor's price trend model;328
19.15;Appendix. Solution to the initial dynamic programming model;332
20;Chapter 12. Practical Implementation of the Decision Price Break Policy. Case Study 1 — Day-to-Day Cereals Buying;338
20.1;12.1 The general problem;338
20.2;12.2 The cereals buying situation;341
20.3;12.3 Initial feasibility study;342
20.4;12.4 Main study using chief buyer's forecasts;347
20.5;12.5 Analysis of the main study results;355
20.6;12.6 Conclusions on the use of the chief buyer's forecasts;360
20.7;12.7 Simple exponential smoothing forecasts;363
20.8;12.8 Adaptive smoothing forecasting methods;367
20.9;12.9 The multilot purchase strategy for cereals;372
20.10;Appendix. The decision price break recurrence relations for the chief buyer's forecasts;374
21;Chapter 13. Practical Implementation of the Decision Price Break Policy. Case Study 2 — Daily Copper Buying;379
21.1;13.1 The purchasing problem;379
21.2;13.2 Historical survey of copper marketing and pricing policies;380
21.3;13.3 Statistical analysis of past copper prices;381
21.4;13.4 Results of the initial studies;383
21.5;13.5 Further improvements to the combined price forecasting/purchasing model;385
21.6;13.6 Performance of the modified model — April 1966 to April 1968;388
21.7;13.7 Other factors affecting the model;391
21.8;13.8 Final form of the purchasing model;393
21.9;13.9 Practical implementation;395
21.10;13.10 The subsequent performance of the model in practice;397
21.11;Appendix. Internal company report on online buying simulation;400
22;Chapter 14. Organising a Study of Raw Material Purchasing;403
22.1;14.1 Planning a purchase study;403
22.2;14.2 Implementation of study results;408
22.3;14.3 Econometric and/or time series forecasts;410
22.4;14.4 An overview of the book;412
23;References;415
24;Sources of trade information published regularly;417
25;Name Index;418
26;Subject Index;420