Hwang The Search for a Unified Korea

Political and Economic Implications
1. Auflage 2010
ISBN: 978-1-4419-1562-7
Verlag: Springer
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 205 Seiten

North Korea's brinkmanship diplomacy has continued to disturb the world with its seemingly reckless missile testing, as the country's leader, Kim Jong-Il, is rumored to be terminally ill with pancreatic cancer. North Korea appears to be in a state of serious internal crisis not only because its dictatorial system, albeit skillful and ruthless leadership, is inherently unstable, if not skillful and ruthless leadership, but also because the main pillar of Kim Jong-Il's legitimacy is rapidly eroding due to both mass starvations and the exodus of grassroots and mass exodus of the North Korean people into nearby regions. The main objective of this book is to explore the probability of North Korea's implosion, and second to search for a feasible way for Korean reuni?cation as a possible consequence of a big bang event on the peninsula. The geopolitics of the Korean Peninsula is historically very complicated as Korea is bordered and s- rounded by four big powers; namely, China, Russia, Japan, and the United States. Each country has its own varying degrees of political, economic, and military stakes with respect to the Korean Peninsula. Thus, the Land of the Morning Calm has remained divided since 1945 mainly as a result of the domain war among these super powers. As the North nears a turning point, however, there is a new possibility for the two Koreas to reunite if the international environments work in their favor, and if both countries are well prepared to assume reuni?cation.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Hwang, Eui-Gak

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Acknowledgments;6
2;Introduction;8
3;Contents;12
4;List of Tables;16
5;1 Are Koreans Ideological Victims?;17
5.1;1.1 The Division and Loss of Indigenous Identity;17
5.2;1.2 Kim Il-Sungs Miscalculation and the Subsequent Years;19
5.3;1.3 Brief Retrospect of the North Juche ( Self-Reliant ) Hermit Kingdom;21
5.4;1.4 Different Roads;23
5.5;1.5 Mass Starvation Under Plenary Power Elites;25
5.6;1.6 For Whom the Mourning Bell Tolls?;25
5.7;1.7 The Shelter for Fearful Leaders;26
5.8;1.8 Who Will Likely Take Over After Kim Jong-Il?;27
6;2 Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation: The Need forINTtie;Reciprocity. Does Lopsided Cooperation Soothe theINTtie;North's Bluffing Mentality?;29
6.1;2.1 The Definition: Economic Cooperation Versus Bilateral Trade;29
6.2;2.2 The Historical Outline of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation;32
6.3;2.3 The Status of the Inter-Korean Trade;33
6.4;2.4 Comparison of the Inter-Korean Trade with the North KoreaChina Trade;38
6.5;2.5 The Determinants of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation;40
6.5.1;2.5.1 The Brief Outline;40
6.5.2;2.5.2 Trade, Investment, and Economic Assistance;40
6.6;2.6 The Effects of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation;42
6.6.1;2.6.1 The Impacts on the South Korean Economy;42
6.6.2;2.6.2 The Impact on the North Korean Economy;46
6.7;2.7 New Policy Paradigm Under Lee Myung-Baks Leadership?;48
6.8;2.8 Closing Remarks on Reciprocity Principle;49
7;3 The Strain Policy Versus the Sunshine Policy: A Road toINTtie;Korean Unification;53
7.1;3.1 Introduction;53
7.2;3.2 How Long Will the Red Flag Fly with the Souths Subsidy?;56
7.3;3.3 What About the Sunshine Policy?;59
7.4;3.4 What Exacerbates Internal Tensions?;62
7.5;3.5 Conclusion: Shorten the Regime on the Brink;66
8;4 What if a Big Bang Occurs on the Korean Peninsula?;72
8.1;4.1 Introduction: What if North Korea Falls?;72
8.2;4.2 Historical Evolutions of the NorthSouth Korean Relations;74
8.3;4.3 The Spillover Effects of Perestroika and Glasnost;76
8.3.1;4.3.1 Gorbachev Phenomenon and Communist Bloc Change;78
8.3.2;4.3.2 Why Does North Korea Refuse Fundamental Change?;80
8.4;4.4 Can Kim Jong-Ils Regime Last Much Longer?;87
8.4.1;4.4.1 Some Scenarios on North Korean Regime Collapse;92
8.5;4.5 What Will Neighboring Nations Do if North Korea Falls?;94
8.5.1;4.5.1 ''Big Bang and the After'' Scenario: Dynamite-Implosion Model;96
8.5.2;4.5.2 Chinese Perceptions of the Korean Peninsula;97
8.5.3;4.5.3 Chinese Response to the North's Collapse Due to Implosion;98
8.5.4;4.5.4 China and North Korea at the Crossroad;99
8.5.5;4.5.5 US Policy and the Korean Peninsula;101
8.5.6;4.5.6 Japan and the Korean Peninsula;106
8.5.7;4.5.7 Russia and the Korean Peninsula;109
8.6;4.6 How Should Koreans Cope with a Big Bang?;111
8.7;4.7 Appendix;112
9;5 New World Environment Surrounding Korea;115
9.1;5.1 Introduction: Misty and Rugged Road to Korean Reunification;115
9.2;5.2 The DPRK and Obama Administration;119
9.3;5.3 Will Kim Jong-Ils End Differ from Ceausescus?;122
9.4;5.4 Will Korean Unification Be Welcome?;124
9.5;5.5 Leadership Role in German Unification Has a Lesson for Korea;130
9.6;5.6 Timely Conditions for a Paradigm Shift;132
10;6 The Political Economy of Reunification Betweenthe Two Koreas;137
10.1;6.1 Introduction;137
10.2;6.2 A Brief Comparison of Economic Performance Between the Two Koreas;139
10.3;6.3 The Economics of Guns and Bread;147
10.4;6.4 The Economics of the Norths Nuclear and Missile Tests;152
10.5;6.5 The Political Economy of Korean Unification;155
11;7 Policy Priorities for the Unified Korea;163
11.1;7.1 Introduction;163
11.2;7.2 Contingency Tasks for a Post-Kim Jong-Il Era;167
11.3;7.3 Approach for Economic Integration;170
11.3.1;7.3.1 Economic and Monetary Integration for the Unified Korea;171
11.3.2;7.3.2 Economic Restructuring and Privatization;178
11.4;7.4 Appendix;180
11.4.1;(A) National Reunification and ''Conclusion of Agreements on Traffic, Correspondence and Trade'';180
11.4.2;(B) The July 7th Declaration entitled ''Special Declaration for Korean Self-Existence and Prosperous Unification'';183
12;8 International Politics and a Search for Unified Korea;186
12.1;8.1 Introduction;186
12.2;8.2 Four Gangs Tug-of-War Politics and the Korean Peninsula;188
12.3;8.3 What Is the Unification Formula: Option for Colorless State?;198
12.4;8.4 Concluding Remarks;203
13;Appendix;205
14;Bibliography;207
15;Index;211