Huntington / Hickman / Sweeney Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks

1. Auflage 2016
ISBN: 978-1-4832-9545-9
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, Band Volume 163, 347 Seiten, Web PDF

Reihe: Contributions to Economic Analysis

Large-scale macroeconomic models have been used extensively to analyze a wide range of important economic issues. They were originally developed to study the economy's response to monetary and fiscal policies. During the 1970s these models were expanded and revised to track the inflationary processes and to incorporate key energy variables so that they could be used to examine the impacts of energy price shocks.This study compares the responses of 14 prominent macroeconomic models to supply-side shocks in the form of sudden energy price increases or decreases and to policies for lessening the impacts of price jumps. Four energy price shocks were examined: oil price increases of 50 and 20 percent, an oil price reduction of 20 percent, and an 80 percent increase in domestic natural gas prices. Five policy responses were considered for offsetting the GNP impacts of the larger oil price increase: monetary accommodation, an income tax rate reduction, an increase in the investment tax credit for equipment, a reduction in the employer's payroll tax rate, and an oil stockpile release.The study was conducted by a working group comprised of about 40 modelers and potential model users from universities, business, and government. As in previous EMF studies, the group pursued two broad goals. Firstly, they sought to understand the models themselves by identifying important similarities as well as structural differences. Secondly, they sought to use the models to sharpen their understanding of energy shocks and of the related policy issues. Their conclusions appear as the first chapter in this volume, the remaining chapters providing more technical treatment of the key structural differences among the participating models as well as their use for evaluating energy policies.This volume is addressed particularly to those interested in the energy shock issue, as well as to those with a broader interest in macroeconomic models and policies.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Huntington, H. G.

Hickman, B. G.

Sweeney, J.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Front Cover;1
2;Macroeconomics Impacts of Energy Shocks;4
3;Copyright Page;5
4;Table of Contents;12
5;Introduction to the series;6
6;Editors' Preface;8
7;Senior Advisory Panel;18
8;Working Group Participants;19
9;Chapter 1. Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks: A Summary of the Key Results;20
9.1;1 Overview;20
9.2;2 Study Design;28
9.3;3 Impacts of an Oil Shock;36
9.4;4 Alternative Energy Shocks;61
9.5;5 Macroeconomic Policies for Reducing the Impacts of an Energy Shock;71
9.6;6 Energy Policy Issues;91
9.7;7 Model Structures;98
9.8;8 Conclusion;130
9.9;Appendix 1A: Energy Shock and Policy Scenarios;131
9.10;Appendix 1B: Special Calculations;136
10;Chapter 2. Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks and Policy Responses: A Structural Comparison of Fourteen Models;144
10.1;1 Introduction;144
10.2;2 The IS-LM Model of Aggregate Demand;146
10.3;3 A Model of Aggregate Demand and Supply;151
10.4;4 Theoretical Analysis of Macroeconomic Responses to Energy Shocks;157
10.5;5 Identifying the Structural Attributes of the Models;161
10.6;6 A Comparative Analysis of EMF 7 Model Responses to an Energy Shock in the Short Run;182
10.7;7 Long Run and Dynamic Responses to Energy Shocks in the EMF 7 Models;188
10.8;8 Summary and Conclusions;199
10.9;References;208
10.10;Appendix 2A: Features of Participating Models;209
10.11;Appendix 2B: Specifications of Scenarios: Change Prom Control Solution;210
10.12;Appendix 2C: Value-Added versus Final Goods Prices;211
10.13;Appendix 2D: Response of Potential GNP to an Energy Shock;212
10.14;Appendix 2E: Percentage Change in Price Level per One Percent Increase in Oil Price, Second Year: Reported and Estimated From Model Characteristics;217
11;Chapter 3. Macroeconomic Models and Energy Policy Issues;218
11.1;1 Introduction;218
11.2;2 Measurement of Economic Impacts;220
11.3;3 The National Income Accounting Framework;228
11.4;4 External and Internal Energy Shocks;234
11.5;5 The Strategic Petroleum Reserve;237
11.6;6 Alternative Energy Policies;245
11.7;7 Summary;248
11.8;References;249
11.9;Appendix: 3A Results of the Simulated Oil Stock-pile Release Scenario;251
12;Chapter 4. EMF 7 Study Design;256
12.1;1 Introduction;256
12.2;2 Issues;257
12.3;3 Control Case, 1982-1986;259
12.4;4 Alternative Scenarios;267
12.5;5 Output Variables;276
12.6;Appendix 4A: Additional Information on Energy Market Assumptions;279
12.7;Appendix 4B: Notes on Representing the Oil Stockpile Release in Scenario #10;281
13;Appendix: A Comparison of Macroeconomic Model Structures;288
13.1;1 Introduction;288
13.2;2 Energy Sector Comparisons;289
13.3;3 Macroeconomic Structure: Production, Inputs, and Capacity Utilization;292
13.4;4 Macroeconomic Structure: Demand-Side Comparison;308