Hickman Global International Economic Models

Selected Papers from an IIASA Conference
1. Auflage 2014
ISBN: 978-1-4832-9873-3
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, Band Volume 147, 322 Seiten, Web PDF

Reihe: Contributions to Economic Analysis

This volume surveys the state-of-the-art of global international modeling. All 15 models included in the survey feature national or regional disaggregation of the world economy and interdependencies among the various nations and regions. A few are constructed for short-term forecasting, but the primary focus is on long-run models and applications.Macroeconomic, input-output, general equilibrium, trade and exchange rate, and several hybrid models are included. A cross-sectional analysis by the editor compares the structures, linkage mechanisms, methodologies and applications of the various models and concludes with some observations on prospective research trends.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Hickman, B. G.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Front Cover;1
2;Global International Economic Models: Selected Papers from an IIASA Conference;4
3;Copyright Page;5
4;Table of Contents;10
5;INTRODUCTION TO THE SERIES;6
6;PREFACE;8
7;Part One: Survey of the Models;12
7.1;CHAPTER 1. A CROSS SECTION OF GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC MODELS;14
7.1.1;1 OVERVIEW OF THE MODELS;14
7.1.2;2 THE INDIVIDUAL PAPERS;18
7.1.3;3 LINKAGE MECHANISMS;22
7.1.4;4 METHODOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS;29
7.1.5;5 APPLICATONS OF GLOBAL MODELS;32
7.1.6;6 FUTURE RESEARCH;35
8;Part Two: Macroeconometric Models;38
8.1;CHAPTER 2. LONG-TERM SIMULATIONS WITH THE PROJECT LINK SYSTEM, 1978-1985;40
8.1.1;1 INTRODUCTION;40
8.1.2;2 WHAT IS THE LINK SYSTEM?;40
8.1.3;3 THE APPROPRIATENESS OF INTERMEDIATE-TERM .ROJECTIONS;43
8.1.4;4 THE STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY;44
8.1.5;5 THE BASELINE CASE, 1978-1985;46
8.1.6;6 FISCAL POLICY SCENARIO;51
8.1.7;7 OIL-PRICE SCENARIOS;53
8.1.8;8 DYNAMIC INTERNATIONAL INCOME MULTIPLIERS;54
8.1.9;REFERENCES;61
8.1.10;COMMENTS;62
8.2;CHAPTER 3. LONG-TERM FORECASTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS: SIMULATIONS WITH A WORLD ECONOMETRIC MODEL (T-FAIS IV);64
8.2.1;1 INTRODUCTION;64
8.2.2;2 USE OF THE MODEL FOR LONG-TERM ANALYSIS;64
8.2.3;3 MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS FOR 1980-2000;66
8.2.4;4 THE RESULTS OF STANDARD FORECASTS;67
8.2.5;5 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS - FURTHER RESEARCH;76
8.2.6;ACKNOWLEDGMENTS;76
8.2.7;REFERENCES;77
8.2.8;COMMENTS;77
8.3;CHAPTER 4. THE STRUCTURE AND PROPERTIES OF THE MULTICOUNTRY MODEL;80
8.3.1;1 INTRODUCTION;80
8.3.2;2 THE PROTOTYPE COUNTRY MODEL;81
8.3.3;3 EVALUATION OF MODEL PERFORMANCE;83
8.3.4;4 FISCAL AND MONETARY MULTIPLIERS;86
8.3.5;5 CONCLUSIONS AND PLANS FOR FUTURE WORK;94
8.3.6;REFERENCES;95
8.4;CHAPTER 5. AN OUTLINE OF A MULTICOUNTRY ECONOMETRIC MODEL;96
8.4.1;1 INTRODUCTION;96
8.4.2;2 THE TRANSITION FROM THE THEORETICAL MODEL TO THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL;97
8.4.3;3 THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL;99
8.4.4;4 THE PROPERTIES OF THE MODEL;100
8.4.5;5 CONCLUSION;102
8.4.6;REFERENCES;103
8.4.7;COMMENTS;104
9;Part Three: General Equilibrium Models;108
9.1;CHAPTER 6. A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY: SOME PRELIMINARY RESULTS;110
9.1.1;1 INTRODUCTION;110
9.1.2;2 THE MODEL;110
9.1.3;3 SIMULATION RESULTS: THE IMPACT OF HIGHER OIL PRICES;118
9.1.4;4 CONCLUSION;123
9.1.5;REFERENCES;124
9.1.6;COMMENTS;128
9.2;CHAPTER 7. GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELING OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION ISSUES AMONG MAJOR WORLD TRADE BLOCS;132
9.2.1;1 ...RODUCTI..;132
9.2.2;2 THE STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL;134
9.2.3;3 "CALIBRATING" THE MODEL;140
9.2.4;4 APPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL;143
9.2.5;5 CONCLUSION;146
9.2.6;REFERENCES;147
9.2.7;COMMENTS;148
9.3;CHAPTER 8. A THREE-REGION MODEL OF ENERGY, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH;152
9.3.1;1 GENERAL BACKGROUND;152
9.3.2;2 THE BASIC SIMPLIFICATIONS;153
9.3.3;3 ALGEBRAIC FORMULATION;154
9.3.4;4 BASE-CASE ASSUMPTIONS AND RESULTS;157
9.3.5;5 ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS;160
9.3.6;6 ELASTICITY ESTIMATES;162
9.3.7;ACKNOWLEDGMENTS;163
9.3.8;REFERENCES;163
9.3.9;APPENDIX A: DEFINITION OF REGIONS, BASIC DATA, AND SOURCES;164
9.3.10;APPENDIX B: RESULTS FOR CASES A-G;167
9.3.11;COMMENTS;174
10;Part Four: Input–Output Models;176
10.1;CHAPTER 9. THE WORLD MODEL: AN INTERREGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL OF THE WORLD ECONOMY;178
10.1.1;1 INTRODUCTION;178
10.1.2;2 THE STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL;179
10.1.3;3 ENUMERATION OF EQUATIONS AND VARIABLES;181
10.1.4;4 DATA;183
10.1.5;5 USE OF THE MODEL;184
10.1.6;REFERENCES;186
10.1.7;APPENDIX A: THE WORLD MODEL REGIONS AND UNITS USED IN APPENDIX .;187
10.1.8;APPENDIX .: THE BASE SCENARIO WITH MILITARY VARIABLES AGGREGATED TO THE WHOLE WORLD;188
10.1.9;COMMENTS;192
10.2;CHAPTER 10. LINKED INPUT–OUTPUT MODELS FOR FRANCE, THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, AND BELGIUM;194
10.2.1;REFERENCES;210
10.2.2;COMMENTS;210
11;Part Five: Hybrid Models;212
11.1;CHAPTER 11. THE IMPACT OF PETROLEUM AND COMMODITY PRICES IN A MODEL OF THE WORLD ECONOMY;214
11.1.1;1 INTRODUCTION;214
11.1.2;2 A THEORETICAL WORLD MODEL WITH OIL AND COMMODITIES;215
11.1.3;3 PETROLEUM AND COMMODITY PRICES IN THE LINK SYSTEM;220
11.1.4;4 SOME "MISSING LINKS";223
11.1.5;REFERENCES;225
11.1.6;APPENDIX;225
11.1.7;COMMENTS;228
11.2;CHAPTER 12. AN EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF COMMODITY-PRICE INDEXATION ON DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: AN APPLICATION OF THE REMPIS MODEL;230
11.2.1;1 INTRODUCTION;230
11.2.2;2 THE INDEXATION SIMULATION: SOME ISSUES;230
11.2.3;3 THE REMPIS MODEL;233
11.2.4;4 THE RESULTS OF THE INDEXATION EXPERIMENT;237
11.2.5;5 CONCLUSIONS;242
11.2.6;ACKNOWLEDGMENTS;244
11.2.7;REFERENCES;244
11.2.8;COMMENTS;245
11.3;CHAPTER 13. PROJECT FUGI AND THE FUTURE OF ESCAP DEVELOPING COUNTRIES;248
11.3.1;1 INTRODUCTION;248
11.3.2;2 THE FUGI INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL;249
11.3.3;3 THE FUGI MACROECONOMIC MODEL (FMEM);256
11.3.4;4 CONCLUSION;264
11.3.5;REFERENCES;265
11.3.6;COMMENTS;265
11.4;CHAPTER 14. DYNAMICO: A MULTILEVEL PROGRAMMING MODEL OF WORLD TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT;270
11.4.1;1 INTRODUCTION;270
11.4.2;2 DYNAMICO: A QUANTITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR POLICY ANALYSIS;271
11.4.3;3 THE WORLD ECONOMY IN 1980: REALITY AND ITS PERCEPTION;281
11.4.4;ACKNOWLEDGMENTS;286
11.4.5;REFERENCES;286
11.4.6;COMMENTS;287
12;Part Six: Trade and Exchange Rate Models;292
12.1;CHAPTER 15. STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE;294
12.1.1;1 INTRODUCTION;294
12.1.2;2 A BRIEF OUTLINE OF THE MODEL AND METHODS;298
12.1.3;3 STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE: 1955–1977;298
12.1.4;REFERENCES;306
12.2;CHAPTER 16. A MODEL OF TRADE AND EXCHANGE RATES;308
12.2.1;1 INTRODUCTION;308
12.2.2;2 THE INTERNATIONAL LINKAGE MODEL;309
12.2.3;3 SIMULATIONS WITH THE MODEL;315
12.2.4;REFERENCES;322
12.2.5;COMMENTS;322
13;AUTHOR INDEX;326