Heise Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability

Monetary Policy Challenges for the Future
1. Auflage 2019
ISBN: 978-3-030-05078-8
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 119 Seiten

Since the financial crisis of 2008/09, the world's major central banks have been struggling to return their economies to higher growth and to reach their inflation targets.
This concise book analyzes the importance of central bank policies for the economy, and specifically investigates the reasons why they have failed to steer inflation as desired. The author, the Chief Economist at Allianz SE, argues that, in an environment of great uncertainty concerning the pass-through of monetary stimulus to the economy, central banks should not focus too narrowly on inflation targets, but should increasingly take the side effects of their actions into account. In particular, he contends that they must seek to minimize the risk of financial booms and busts in order to maximize long-term growth and prosperity.
Building on existing research and contributing to the current debate, the book offers a valuable reference guide and food for thought for policymakers, professionals and students alike.

Michael Heise is Global Chief Economist at Allianz SE, where he advises the board on economic and strategic issues. He is responsible for the analysis and forecasts of the international economy, and for financial markets and risk analysis. Heise studied and graduated from Cologne University and teaches as a honorary professor at the Johann Wolfgang Goethe University in Frankfurt-am-Main. Before joining the Allianz Group, Heise was Secretary General of the German Council of Economic Experts, Chief Economist and Head of Research at DZ Bank.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Heise, Michael

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Foreword;5
2;Preface;7
3;Contents;9
4;List of Abbreviations;10
5;List of Figures;11
6;1: Introduction;13
6.1;Reference;16
7;2: Some Reflections on the Secular Decline in Interest Rates;17
7.1;2.1 Fundamental Factors;17
7.2;2.2 The Impact of Monetary Policy;30
7.3;References;40
8;3: Uncertainties About the Monetary Transmission Mechanism;42
8.1;3.1 The Credit Channel in Times of Deleveraging;43
8.2;3.2 The Risks Involved in the Asset Price Channel;49
8.3;3.3 The Impact of Monetary Policy and the Phillips Curve Debate;55
8.4;References;59
9;4: Side Effects of Monetary Accommodation;61
9.1;4.1 The Impact on Financial Wealth and Retirement Assets;62
9.2;4.2 The Impact on Inequality;64
9.3;4.3 Target II Imbalances;69
9.4;4.4 The Risk of Serial Financial Bubbles;72
9.5;4.5 The Relentless Rise of Debt;76
9.6;References;82
10;5: Towards a Monetary Policy Fit for the Future;84
10.1;5.1 Recalibrating Inflation Targets;85
10.2;5.2 Accounting for Trade-Offs with Financial Stability;89
10.3;5.3 The Role of More Discretionary Elements;93
10.4;5.4 The Risks of QE as the New Normal;95
10.5;References;98
11;6: Conclusions;99
11.1;References;102
12;Appendix: Op-Ed List;103
12.1;Project Syndicate;103
12.1.1;The Debt Shackles Return;103
12.2;Financial Times;106
12.2.1;Fed’s failure to tighten financial conditions a cause for concern;106
12.3;Financial Times;108
12.3.1;Bond markets need to wake up to global upswing;108
12.4;Project Syndicate;110
12.4.1;Rewriting the Monetary-Policy Script;110
12.5;Financial Times;113
12.5.1;Monetary policy lacks the muscle to boost growth;113
12.6;Wall Street Journal;115
12.6.1;Hitting the Limits of Monetary Policy;115
12.6.1.1;Even ECB President Mario Draghi admits he’s running out of options.;115
12.7;Financial Times: Markets Insight;118
12.7.1;Don’t forget the upside of ‘lower for longer’ oil;118
12.7.1.1;It’s time to remember the fundamentals—low oil prices will boost the global economy;118