Haimes Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management

2. Auflage 2005
ISBN: 978-0-471-72389-9
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, Band 1, 864 Seiten, E-Book

Reihe: Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management

An updated and timely new look at the theory and practice of riskmanagement
Since the first edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, andManagement was published, public interest in the field of riskanalysis has grown astronomically. Its adaptation across manydisciplines and its deployment by industry and government agenciesin decision making has led to an unprecedented development of newtheory, methodology, and practical tools.
The Second Edition of this well-regarded reference describes thestate of the art of risk management and its important applicationsin such areas as engineering, science, manufacturing, business,management, and public policy. The author strikes a balance betweenthe quantitative and the qualitative aspects of risk management,showing clearly how to quantify risk and construct probability inconjunction with real-world decision-making problems. At the sametime, he addresses a host of institutional, organizational,political, and cultural considerations. Incorporating real-worldexamples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methodsunder discussion, the book presents basic concepts as well asadvanced material, avoiding higher mathematics wheneverpossible.
Some key revisions to the Second Edition include:
* A completely updated format with many new examples andproblems
* A new chapter on Risks of Terrorism, including case studies intransportation, water supply, infrastructure interdependencies,food safety, and a National Research Council report onterrorism
* A new chapter on Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM),a technology co-developed by the author and supported by severalcase studies and examples
* A new focus on minimizing the high cost associated with today'smore extensive risk management
Examining timely, multidisciplinary practical applications, thisnew edition offers an important resource for industry professionalsas well as advanced graduate students in systems engineering.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Haimes, Yacov Y.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface.
Acknowledgments.
PART I: FUNDAMENTALS OF RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, ANDMANAGEMENT.
1. The Art and Science of Systems and Risk Analysis.
2. The Role of Modeling in the Risk Analysis Process.
3. Identifying Risk Through Hierarchical HolographicModeling.
4. Decision Analysis.
5. Multiobjective Trade-Off Analysis.
6. Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis.
7. Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management.
PART II: ADVANCES IN RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, ANDMANAGEMENT.
8. Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of Expected Value.
9. Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis.
10. Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method.
11. Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM.
12. Bayesian Analysis and the Prediction of ChemicalCarcinogenicity.
13. Fault Trees.
14. Multiobjective Statistical Method.
15. Principles and Guidelines for Project Risk Management.
16. Applying Risk Analysis to Space Missions.
17. Risk Modeling, Assess ment, and Management of Terrorism.
18. Case Studies.
Appendix: Optimization Techniques.
Index.

Über Autor(innen)

YACOV Y. HAIMES, PhD, is the Lawrence R. Quarles Professor of Systems and Information Engineering and Civil Engineering and Founding Director of the Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems established in 1987 at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville.