Hageback The Mystery of Market Movements

An Archetypal Approach to Investment Forecasting and Modelling
1. Auflage 2014
ISBN: 978-1-118-84500-4
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 192 Seiten, E-Book

Reihe: Bloomberg Professional

A quantifiable framework for unlocking the unconscious forcesthat shape markets
There has long been a notion that subliminal forces play a greatpart in causing the seemingly irrational financial bubbles, whichconventional economic theory, again and again, fails to explain.However, these forces, sometimes labeled 'animalspirits' or 'irrational exuberance, have remainedelusive - until now. The Mystery of Market Movementsprovides you with a methodology to timely predict and profit fromchanges in human investment behaviour based on the workings of thecollective unconscious.
Niklas Hageback draws in on one of psychology's most influentialideas - archetypes - to explain how they form investor'sperceptions and can be predicted and turned into profit. TheMystery of Market Movements provides;
* A review of the collective unconscious and its archetypes basedon Carl Jung's theories and empirical case studies thathighlights and assesses the influences of the collectiveunconscious on financial bubbles and zeitgeists
* For the first time being able to objectively measure the impactof archetypal forces on human thoughts and behaviour with a view toprovide early warning signals on major turns in the markets. Thisis done through a step-by-step guide on how to develop ameasurement methodology based on an analysis of the language of theunconscious; figurative speech such as metaphors and symbolism,drawn out and deciphered from Big Data sources, allowingfor quantification into time series
* The book is supplemented with an online resource that presentscontinuously updated bespoken archetypal indexes with predictivecapabilities to major financial indexes
Investors are often unaware of the real reasons behindtheir own financial decisions. This book explains why psychologicaldrivers in the collective unconscious dictates not only investmentbehaviour but also political, cultural and social trends.Understanding these forces allows you to stay ahead of the curveand profit from market tendencies that more traditional methodscompletely overlook.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Hageback, Niklas

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Acknowledgments ix
Introduction 1
CHAPTER 1 Psychology: A Primer 7
Some Key Psychological Concepts 9
The Unconscious 13
Conclusion 21
Notes 22
References 24
CHAPTER 2 Archetypes and Symbols 27
Carl Gustav Jung 27
Archetypes: A Background 31
Why Do Archetypes Activate? 40
Symbols: The Tangible Manifestations of Archetypes 45
Conclusion 50
Notes 50
References 52
CHAPTER 3 How Archetypes Influence and Impact Behaviour 55
Characteristics of the Activation of an Archetype 55
Projections and Other Defense Mechanisms 56
The Role of Scapegoats 58
Shadow Projections 58
Zeitgeist 59
Mass Hysteria and Panics 62
Conclusion 65
Notes 65
References 66
CHAPTER 4 Archetypal Influences in the Financial Markets 67
Financial Bubbles 67
Animal Spirits 71
An Archetypal Perspective on the Development of Financial Bubbles 74
Conclusion 77
Notes 77
References 78
CHAPTER 5 Existing Approaches to Capture Sentiments in Financial Markets, and Why They Do Not Work 81
Behavioural Finance 82
Technical Analysis 83
Efficient Market Hypothesis 84
Black Swans 86
Social Mood 87
Emotion Words 89
Conclusion 89
Notes 90
References 91
CHAPTER 6 Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces, Part I: Building Blocks 93
Linking Symbols to Archetypes 96
Capturing Symbols 98
Conclusion 107
Notes 108
References 109
CHAPTER 7 Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces, Part II: The Data 111
Data Sources 112
Capture and Cleansing 114
Relativisation of Symbol Words 119
Two Article Examples 120
Conclusion 128
Notes 128
References 129
CHAPTER 8 Developing a Conceptual Measurement Methodology Based on Archetypal Forces, Part III: The Model 131
Signal Theory 133
Correlation Testing 136
Testing the Time Series against Known Cycles 138
Constructing Archetypal Composite Indexes 138
Backtesting and Calibration 141
Conclusion 142
Notes 143
References 143
CHAPTER 9 Examples of Archetypal Influences on the Formation of Financial Bubbles 145
The Dot-Com Bubble 148
The US Property Bubble 155
Conclusion 159
Notes 160
References 161
CHAPTER 10 Conclusion 163
How Archetypes Play Out 164
Areas for Further Research 165
Time Constants 166
Multiple Archetypes 166
Tipping Points 167
Subliminal Stimulation 168
Archetypal Influences in Other Areas 169
Archetypal Influences in Other Cultures and Languages 170
Are the Collective Unconscious and Its Archetypes Constraining Free Will? 171
Influences on Finance 172
About the Author 175
Index 177

Über Autor(innen)

NIKLAS HAGEBACK has extensive experience in the financialsector working at tier-one financial institutions and consultingfirms, such as Deutsche Bank, KPMG, and Goldman Sachs, holdingregional risk management and oversight roles in both Europe andAsia. This included leading the implementation of operational riskand economic capital frameworks and also engaging in the publicdebate through a number of articles published, public presentationsand regulatory lobbying.
He currently resides in Hong Kong where he is running a moneymanagement firm as well as managing a portfolio of financialsoftware start-up firms with a special focus on research andproduct development in the area of behavioural finance.