Everitt Chance Rules

An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics
2. Auflage 1999
ISBN: 978-0-387-77415-2
Verlag: Springer US
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 142 Seiten

Chance continues to govern our lives in the 21st Century. From the genes we inherit and the environment into which we are born, to the lottery ticket we buy at the local store, much of life is a gamble. In business, education, travel, health, and marriage, we take chances in the hope of obtaining something better. Chance colors our lives with uncertainty, and so it is important to examine it and try to understand about how it operates in a number of different circumstances. Such understanding becomes simpler if we take some time to learn a little about probability, since probability is the natural language of uncertainty. This second edition of Chance Rules again recounts the story of chance through history and the various ways it impacts on our lives. Here you can read about the earliest gamblers who thought that the fall of the dice was controlled by the gods, as well as the modern geneticist and quantum theory researcher trying to integrate aspects of probability into their chosen speciality. Example included in the first addition such as the infamous Monty Hall problem, tossing coins, coincidences, horse racing, birthdays and babies remain, often with an expanded discussion, in this edition. Additional material in the second edition includes, a probabilistic explanation of why things were better when you were younger, consideration of whether you can use probability to prove the existence of God, how long you may have to wait to win the lottery, some court room dramas, predicting the future, and how evolution scores over creationism. Chance Rules lets you learn about probability without complex mathematics.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Everitt, Brian

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Preface to the Second Edition;6
2;Acknowledgments to the Second Edition;7
3;Preface to the First Edition;8
4;Acknowledgments to the First Edition;10
5;Contents;12
6;A Brief History of Chance;14
6.1;Introduction;14
6.2;A Brief History of Chance;14
7;What Are the Chances? Assigning Probabilities;25
7.1;Introduction;25
7.2;Using Relative Frequencies as Probabilities;26
7.3;The Classical Definition of Probability;26
7.4;Subjective Probability;28
7.5;Rules for Combining Probabilities;29
7.6;Odds;30
8;Choice and Chance; Permutations and Combinations;31
8.1;Introduction;31
8.2;Permutations and Combinations;32
8.3;Using Permutations and Combinations to Assign Probabilities;34
9;Tossing Coins and Having Babies;36
9.1;The Toss of a Coin;36
9.2;The Probability of a Head;38
9.3;Some Surprising Results About Coin Tossing;41
9.3.1;Two tosses;41
9.3.2;Four tosses;41
9.4;Having Babies;45
10;Rolling Dice;50
10.1;Rolling Dice;50
10.2;Shooting Craps;55
10.3;Waiting Times;56
11;Gambling for Fun: Lotteries and Football Pools;58
11.1;Introduction;58
11.2;National Lotteries;58
11.3;Football Pools;63
12;Serious Gambling: Roulette, Cards and Horse Racing;66
12.1;Introduction;66
12.2;Roulette;67
12.3;Playing Cards;69
12.3.1;Poker;71
12.3.2;Contract Bridge;75
12.3.3;Blackjack;78
12.4;Horse Racing;80
13;Balls, Birthdays and Coincidences;87
13.1;Introduction;87
13.2;Birthday Surprises;89
13.3;Coincidences;91
14;Conditional Probability and the Reverend Thomas Bayes;96
14.1;Introduction;96
14.2;Conditional Probability;97
14.3;Conditional Probabilities and Medical Practice;101
14.4;An Unsung Statistician;103
14.5;Applying Bayes’s Theorem;106
14.6;Back to the Courtroom;109
15;Puzzling Probabilities;114
15.1;Introduction;114
15.2;A New Neighbour;114
15.3;The Fabulous Prize;116
15.4;Theres No Such Thing as a Surprise Fire Drill;118
15.5;Will You Get the Correct Seat?;119
15.6;Finding the Right Hat;121
15.7;Records or Why Things Were Better When I Was Young;122
15.8;Choosing the Most Bubbly Secretary;123
15.9;The St. Petersburg Paradox;126
15.10;All Probabilities Are Conditional;127
16;Taking Risks;129
16.1;Introduction;129
16.2;Quantifying Risk;131
16.3;Risk Presentation and Risk Perception;134
16.4;Acceptable Risk;141
17;Statistics, Statisticians and Medicine;143
17.1;Introduction;143
17.2;Medicine-from Anecdote to Evidence;144
17.3;Treatments Worthless-and Worse;145
17.3.1;The Beginnings of a Rational Approach;147
17.3.2;The Clinical Trial;151
17.3.3;Vitamin C and the Common Cold;155
17.3.4;Healing Power of Prayer?;157
17.4;Summary;160
18;Alternative Therapies-Panaceas or Placebos?;162
18.1;Introduction;162
18.2;Acupuncture;165
18.2.1;Loosing Weight;168
18.2.2;Stopping Smoking;168
18.3;Homoeopathy;170
18.3.1;Warts and All;170
18.3.2;Adenoid Enlargement;171
18.3.3;Migraine;171
18.4;Summary;172
19;What Does the Future Hold?;176
19.1;Introduction;176
19.2;Statistical Models;177
19.3;Modelling Winning Times in the Men’s 1500 m in the Olympic Games;178
19.4;Can Statisticians or Mathematicians Predict the Market?;185
20;Chance, Chaos and Chromosomes;189
20.1;The Overthrow of Determinism;189
20.2;Chaos;193
20.3;Evolution, Genes and Chromosomes;194
20.4;Life, the Universe and Everything;200
21;Epilogue;204
21.1;Sources ;205
21.2;Index;206