E-Book, Englisch, Band Volume 165, 260 Seiten, Web PDF
Epstein A History of Econometrics
1. Auflage 2014
ISBN: 978-1-4832-9422-3
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark
E-Book, Englisch, Band Volume 165, 260 Seiten, Web PDF
Reihe: Contributions to Economic Analysis
ISBN: 978-1-4832-9422-3
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark
This comparative historical study of econometrics focuses on the development of econometric methods and their application to macroeconomics.The analysis covers the origins of modern econometrics in the USA and Europe during the 1920's and 30's, the rise of `structural estimation' in the 1940's and 50's as the dominant research paradigm, and the crisis of the large macroeconomic models in the 1970's and 80's.The completely original feature of this work is the use of previously unknown manuscript material from the archives of the Cowles Commission and other collections. The history so constructed shows that recent debates over methodology are incomplete without understanding the many deep criticisms that were first raised by the earliest researchers in the field.
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Weitere Infos & Material
1;Front Cover;1
2;A History of Econometrics;4
3;Copyright Page;5
4;Table of Contents;10
5;Introduction to the Series;6
6;PREFACE;8
7;INTRODUCTION;14
7.1;Purpose of the Study;14
7.2;The Setting of the Problem;16
7.3;Use of Original Source Material;17
7.4;Summary of Principal Recent Critiques;18
7.5;Outline of Following Chapters;20
7.6;NOTES TO INTRODUCTION;23
8;CHAPTER 1. THE DISCOVERY OF HIGHER STATISTICS" IN ECONOMIC RESEARCH;24
8.1;1.1 Background;24
8.2;1.2 American Developments 1911–1930;26
8.3;1.3 Stirrings in Europe;46
8.4;NOTES TO CHAPTER 1;55
9;CHAPTER 2.
THE EMERGENCE OF STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION;60
9.1;2.1 Background: Macrodynamics and Complete Systems;60
9.2;2.2 The "Cowles Commission Method";73
9.3;2.3 Beginning Debate over Methodology of Structural Estimation;77
9.4;NOTES TO CHAPTER 2;84
10;CHAPTER 3. THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION;92
10.1;3.1 The Full Employment Act and Post-War Policies;92
10.2;3.2 Wartime Price Controls and the Cowles Commission;95
10.3;3.3 Fiscal Policy and Debates over Taxation;99
10.4;3.4 Structural Estimation and American Institutionalism;100
10.5;NOTES TO CHAPTER 3;107
11;CHAPTER 4. PROMISES AND PROBLEMS OF STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION;112
11.1;4.1 Attempts to Recruit Mathematical Statisticians;112
11.2;4.2 Empirical Work at Cowles;114
11.3;4.3 Retreat from Structure;123
11.4;4.4 Structural Estimation after Cowles;127
11.5;NOTES TO CHAPTER 4;146
12;CHAPTER 5. CONTEMPORARY ALTERNATIVES TO SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS ESTIMATION;154
12.1;5.1 Comparative Developments in England 1939–54;154
12.2;5.2 Tinbergen and the Netherlands Central Planning Bureau;165
12.3;5.3 The Swedish School: Recursive Models and OLS;168
12.4;NOTES TO CHAPTER 5;178
13;CHAPTER 6.
EXOGENEITY;184
13.1;6.1 Introduction;184
13.2;6.2 A Priori Exogeneity;185
13.3;6.3 Testing Exogeneity;189
13.4;6.4 Rational Expectations;198
13.5;NOTES TO CHAPTER 6;214
14;CHAPTER 7.
VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS;218
14.1;7.1 Background;218
14.2;7.2 Critique of Identification;219
14.3;7.3 An Alternative Time-Series Methodology;220
14.4;7.4 Contrast to Structural Methods;222
14.5;7.5 Estimation and Inference with a VAR;222
14.6;7.6 Hypothesis Testing;224
14.7;7.7 Policy Analysis;225
14.8;7.8 Conclusions about VAR Methodology;230
14.9;NOTES TO CHAPTER 7;234
15;CHAPTER 8.
CONCLUSION;236
15.1;8.1 Review of the Argument;236
15.2;8.2 Divergent Trends in Modern Econometrics;237
15.3;8.3 A Role for Methodological Studies;238
16;BIBLIOGRAPHY;242
17;INDEX OF NAMES;262
18;INDEX OF SUBJECTS;266
