Dodson Changing Climates, Earth Systems and Society

1. Auflage 2010
ISBN: 978-90-481-8716-4
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 244 Seiten

Reihe: International Year of Planet Earth

The International Year of Planet Earth (IYPE) was established as a means of raising worldwide public and political awareness of the vast, though frequently under-used, potential the Earth Sciences possess for improving the quality of life of the peoples of the world and safeguarding Earth's rich and diverse environments. The International Year project was jointly initiated in 2000 by the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) and the Earth Science Division of the United Nations Educational, Scienti?c and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO). IUGS, which is a Non-Governmental Organisation, and UNESCO, an Inter-Governmental Organisation, already shared a long record of productive cooperation in the na- ral sciences and their application to societal problems, including the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) now in its fourth decade. With its main goals of raising public awareness of, and enhancing research in the Earth sciences on a global scale in both the developed and less-developed countries of the world, two operational programmes were demanded. In 2002 and 2003, the Series Editors together with Dr. Ted Nield and Dr. Henk Schalke (all four being core members of the Management Team at that time) drew up outlines of a Science and an Outreach Programme. In 2005, following the UN proclamation of 2008 as the United Nations International Year of Planet Earth, the 'Year' grew into a triennium (2007-2009).

Autoren/Hrsg.

Dodson, John

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Foreword;5
2;Preface;8
3;Contents;10
4;Contributors;12
5;Reviewers;15
6;Introduction;16
7;Setting the Scene: How Do We Get to a Fitting Future?;18
7.1;Introduction;18
7.2;Climate Change;19
7.3;Climate Impacts on Societies;19
7.4;Climate Models;20
7.5;This Book;21
7.6;References;21
8;Impacts of Climate Change on Terrestrial Ecosystems and Adaptation Measures for Natural Resource Management;22
8.1;Introduction;22
8.2;Observed Impacts;24
8.2.1;Observed Changes in Climate;24
8.2.2;Observed Impacts on Vegetation;24
8.2.3;Observed Impacts on Fauna;27
8.2.4;Observed Impacts on Global Biogeochemistry;27
8.3;Projected Impacts;28
8.3.1;Projected Changes in Climate and Uncertainties;28
8.3.2;Projected Impacts on Vegetation;29
8.3.3;Projected Impacts on Fauna;31
8.3.4;Projected Impacts on Global Biogeochemistry;31
8.4;Adaptation;32
8.4.1;Types of Adaptation;32
8.4.2;Evolutionary Species Adaptation;32
8.4.3;Species-Specific Natural Resource Management Adaptation;32
8.4.4;Landscape-Scale Natural Resource Management Adaptation;33
8.5;References;34
9;Fire in the Earth System;38
9.1;Introduction;38
9.2;Observations of Wildfire Regimes;39
9.2.1;Contemporary Fire Patterns;39
9.2.2;Historical Records of Fire;42
9.2.3;Paleofires;42
9.3;Controls of Fire;45
9.4;People and Fire;47
9.5;Fire and Vegetation Dynamics;48
9.6;Potential Feedbacks to Climate;49
9.6.1;Carbon Cycle Feedbacks;49
9.6.2;Atmospheric Chemistry Feedbacks;50
9.6.3;Impacts of Soot;51
9.7;Costs;52
9.8;Future Fire Regimes;54
9.9;Mitigation and Adaptation: Can We Manage Future Fire;56
9.10;Conclusions;58
9.11;References;58
10;Vanishing Polar Ice Sheets;66
10.1;Polar Ice Sheets Drivers and Recorders of the Global Climate System;67
10.1.1;The Polar-Tropical Power Struggle;67
10.1.2;Antarctica;67
10.1.3;Greenland;68
10.2;The Deep Time History of Polar Ice Sheets;69
10.2.1;Continents in Motion;69
10.2.2;Gauging Past Temperatures and CO 2 Levels;70
10.2.3;Green Antarctica;73
10.2.4;Icy Antarctica -- Big Dynamic Ice Sheets;75
10.2.5;EAIS Freezes -- WAIS Stays Dynamic;77
10.2.6;Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets Take Over;79
10.2.7;From Wobbles to Cycles;79
10.3;Swings of the Past 1 Million Years;80
10.3.1;Stories from Tiny Bubbles;81
10.3.2;The Polar See-Saw;83
10.3.3;Modern Rise of Greenhouse Gases;84
10.4;Feeling the Heat;84
10.4.1;Polar Bears Adrift;85
10.4.2;Antarctica Loses Chill;87
10.4.3;Southern Ocean Warming;88
10.4.4;Ice Shelf Collapse;90
10.4.5;Pace Picking Up;91
10.5;Bracing for the Future It Is Our Choice;94
10.6;More Information;95
10.7;References;96
11;Climate and Peatlands;101
11.1;Introduction;101
11.2;Peatlands as Archives of Past Climate Variability;102
11.2.1;Chronologies of Wetlands;102
11.2.2;Determination of Peat Humification;103
11.2.3;Peat Macrofossils;104
11.2.4;Testate Amoebae;106
11.2.5;Biomarker Compounds and Stable Isotope Ratios as Indicators of Environmental Change in Peatlands;109
11.2.5.1;Biomarkers;109
11.2.5.2;Environmental Stable Isotopes;109
11.2.5.3;Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes;109
11.2.5.4;Carbon Isotopes;110
11.2.6;Sand Grain and Dust Influx in Peat Bogs as Proxies of Past Circulation Strength;110
11.2.6.1;Sand Grains in Peat Deposits;110
11.2.6.2;Dust Particles in Peat Bogs;111
11.2.6.3;Tracing the Sources of Dust Input;111
11.2.6.4;Reconstructions of Past Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics;112
11.2.6.5;Strengths and Weaknesses;113
11.2.7;Stomatal Records from Subfossil Leaves as Proxies of Plants' Responses to Past Atmospheric CO2 Variations;113
11.2.7.1;Experimental Settings to Study Stomatal Frequency Responses;114
11.2.7.2;Methods of Assessing Stomatal Frequency;115
11.2.7.3;Ice Core and Stomatal Based Reconstructions of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations;115
11.2.7.4;Signal or Noise: Validation of Stomatal-Based CO2 Reconstructions?;116
11.2.8;Impacts of CO2 Changes on Plants and Ecosystems;118
11.3;Climate Variability Reconstructed from Peat Bogs;119
11.4;Impact of Climate Change on Peatlands and Potential Feedback Mechanisms on Climate;119
11.4.1;Palsa Mires in a Changing Climate;119
11.4.2;Dating of Permafrost Phases in Palsa Mires;120
11.4.3;Ecosystem Protected Permafrost in Palsa Mires;121
11.4.4;Carbon Cycling in Relation to Degradation of Permafrost in Palsa Mires;121
11.4.5;Current and Future Development of Palsa Mires;123
11.4.5.1;Active Layer and Permafrost Temperatures;123
11.4.5.2;Experimental Snow Depth Manipulation;124
11.4.5.3;Modelling Future Palsa Distribution;124
11.5;Impact of Climate Change on Regenerating Cutover Bogs: The Future Does Not Look Bright;125
11.5.1;Modelling Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE);126
11.6;Concluding Remarks;127
11.7;References;128
12;Climate and Lacustrine Ecosystems;138
12.1;Introduction;138
12.2;Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions;140
12.2.1;Stable Carbon and Oxygen Isotopes of Biological Materials from Lacustrine Archives as Proxies for Phytoplankton Primary Production, Nutrient Conditions and Water Temperature;141
12.3;Quantitative Climate Reconstructions;145
12.3.1;Late Glacial;146
12.3.2;The Holocene;148
12.3.3;The Last Millennium;149
12.3.4;Recent Past Decades;151
12.4;Biodiversity;151
12.4.1;The Future;152
12.5;Cyanobacteria;153
12.5.1;Changes Through Time;153
12.5.1.1;The Last Glacial;153
12.5.1.2;The Holocene;153
12.5.1.3;The Last Millennium;154
12.5.1.4;Recent Decades;154
12.5.1.5;Modeling Future Changes;156
12.6;Eutrophication;157
12.6.1;Changes Through Time;157
12.6.1.1;The Last Glacial Maximum;157
12.6.1.2;The Holocene;158
12.6.1.3;The Last Millennium;158
12.6.1.4;Last Decades;158
12.6.1.5;Future Changes;158
12.7;Oxygen Availability;158
12.7.1;Changes Through Time;159
12.7.1.1;Long-Temporal Scale;159
12.7.1.2;The Holocene;159
12.7.1.3;The Last Millennium;159
12.7.1.4;Last Decades;159
12.7.1.5;Future Changes;159
12.8;Lake Level Changes;159
12.8.1;The Late Glacial;160
12.8.2;Holocene Lake Level Trends;161
12.8.3;The Last Millennium;162
12.8.4;Last Decades;163
12.8.5;Future Changes;163
12.9;UV Penetration in Lakes;163
12.9.1;Changes Through Time;164
12.9.1.1;Late Glacial;164
12.9.1.2;The Holocene;164
12.9.1.3;The Last Millenium;165
12.9.1.4;Last Decades;165
12.9.1.5;Future Changes;165
12.10;Conclusions;165
12.11;References;166
13;Rivers;176
13.1;Introduction;176
13.1.1;Why Fossil Insects Are a Cost Efficient Tool to Analyse Past River Changes;177
13.1.2;Chironomid and Coleopteran Remains as Efficient Palaeoecological Tools;177
13.1.2.1;Chironomids;177
13.1.2.2;Coleoptera;178
13.2;Climate Reconstructions;179
13.2.1;Pleistocene Sedimentary Sequences: Last Glacial and Late Glacial Periods;179
13.2.2;The Holocene;180
13.2.3;Historical Period (Anthopocene): Local Impacts of Human Activities on River Waterbodies;182
13.2.4;Evidence for Human Impact at Neolithic on the Alluvial Forests;184
13.3;Implications for the Future;187
13.4;References;188
14;Climate Change and Desertification with Special Reference to the Cases in China;191
14.1;Introduction;191
14.2;Desertification in the Past;193
14.3;Future Trend of Desertification;198
14.4;Interactions Between Climate Change and Desertification;199
14.5;Conclusions;199
14.6;References;200
15;Climate Change, Societal Transitions and Changing Infectious Disease Burdens;202
15.1;Introduction;202
15.2;Faecal-Oral Infectious Diseases;204
15.3;Vector-Borne Diseases;206
15.4;Conclusion;211
15.5;References;211
16;Don't We All Want Good Weather and Cheap Food?;213
16.1;Introduction;213
16.1.1;Food Security -- A Human Right Since 1948;213
16.2;Changes in Demand Drivers to What We Want;214
16.2.1;Population Growth;215
16.2.2;Access to Food;216
16.2.3;Markets and Distribution;217
16.3;Changes in Supply Can We Get It?;220
16.3.1;Climate Change;220
16.3.2;Land Use Change;222
16.3.3;Technological Fix;223
16.4;Concluding Remarks;224
16.5;Find Out More About...;225
16.6;References;226
17;Building Capacity to Cope with Climate Change in the Least Developed Countries;228
17.1;Introduction;228
17.2;Responding to the Challenges of Climate Change and Development: The CLACC Programme;230
17.3;Box 1 CLACC programme aims;231
17.3.1;The CLACC Fellowship Programme;231
17.3.2;Attending Key Meetings;232
17.3.3;Strengthening NAPAs;232
17.3.4;Research;232
17.3.5;Regional Workshops;232
17.3.6;Outreach Activities;233
17.4;Climate Change and Urban Development in Low- and Middle-Income Countries;233
17.5;Managing and Evaluating CLACC;235
17.5.1;Relevance;236
17.5.2;Effectiveness;236
17.5.3;Impact;237
17.5.4;Efficiency;238
17.5.5;Sustainability;238
17.6;What Next for CLACC?;239
17.6.1;Lessons Learned for Capacity-Building Programmes Elsewhere;239
17.7;References;240
18;Climate Change Mitigation Policy: An Overview of Opportunities and Challenges;242
18.1;Introduction;242
18.2;Climate Change Mitigation Options;242
18.3;Economic Case for Climate Change Mitigation;243
18.4;Implementation of Climate Policy Measures;245
18.5;Critique of Current Policy Approaches;247
18.6;New Economic Thinking for Climate Change Mitigation;249
18.7;Towards Achieving Global Climate Change Mitigation;250
18.8;References;251
19;Index;253