Bernoulli's Fallacy

Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
Erscheinungsjahr 2022
ISBN: 978-0-231-19995-7
Verlag: Columbia University Press

Buch, Englisch, 368 Seiten, Print PDF, Format (B × H): 154 mm x 232 mm, Gewicht: 592 g

There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations.

Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics.

Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach—that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information—in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Clayton, Aubrey

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Soziologie | Soziale Arbeit Soziologie Allgemein Empirische Sozialforschung, Statistik
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Volkswirtschaftslehre Volkswirtschaftslehre Allgemein Wirtschaftsstatistik, Demographie
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Wirtschaftsmathematik und -statistik
• Geowissenschaften Geographie | Raumplanung Geostatistik
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Mathematik Allgemein Philosophie der Mathematik
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften Interdisziplinär Naturwissenschaften, Technik, Medizin
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Stochastik Bayesianische Inferenz
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Mathematik Allgemein Geschichte der Mathematik
• Medizin | Veterinärmedizin Medizin | Public Health | Pharmazie | Zahnmedizin Medizin, Gesundheitswesen Epidemiologie, Medizinische Statistik
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Stochastik Mathematische Statistik

Über Autor(innen)

Aubrey Clayton is a mathematician who teaches the philosophy of probability and statistics at the Harvard Extension School. He holds a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley, and his writing has appeared in Pacific Standard, Nautilus, and the Boston Globe.