Chestnut Contributions of Technology to International Conflict Resolution

Proceedings of the IFAC Workshop, Cleveland, Ohio, USA, 3-5 June 1986
1. Auflage 2014
ISBN: 978-1-4832-9828-3
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 172 Seiten, Web PDF

Reihe: IFAC Workshop Series

This book investigates technology's potential for stimulating and strengthening approaches that can lead to the peaceful solution of international conflicts. It discusses the causes of war; the political and social implications of neighbourhood and international involvement, and evaluates various aid programmes. Models are applied to methods of mediation and simulating power distribution and decision making to show how modern technology can be used to promote resolution in the event of conflict.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Chestnut, H.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Front Cover;1
2;Contributions of Technology to International Conflict Resolution;4
3;Copyright Page;5
4;Table of Contents;8
5;IFAC WORKSHOP ON CONTRIBUTIONS OF TECHNOLOGY TO INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT RESOLUTION;6
6;PREFACE;7
7;INTRODUCTION;10
7.1;APPLICATION OF CONTROL PRINCIPLES TO INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS;10
7.2;CONFLICTS ARE INEVITABLE;10
7.3;CHOICE OF WORKSHOP THEME;10
7.4;POTENTIAL OF TECHNOLOGY FOR PEACEFUL CONFLICT RESOLUTION;10
7.5;QUESTIONS ASKED AND TOPICS COVERED;11
7.6;WORKSHOP PROGRAM AIMS;11
7.7;ACTIVITIES THAT ARE PARTS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION;12
7.8;ORGANIZATION OF SESSIONS AND TEXT;13
7.9;OBSERVATIONS AND FINDINGS;13
8;PART 1: POSSIBLE CAUSES FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT AND WAYS AVAILABLE FOR PREVENTING THEM FROM BECOMING WARS ;16
8.1;Chapter 1. The Causes of War;18
8.1.1;INTRODUCTION;18
8.1.2;CAUSES RELATED TO THE ELEMENTS;18
8.1.3;CAUSES ARISING FROM THE STRUCTURES;19
8.1.4;THE CAUSES IN INTERNATIONAL PROCESSES;20
8.1.5;WHERE TO INTERVENE IN THE WAR SYSTEM;21
8.1.6;CONCLUSIONS;22
8.1.7;REFERENCES;22
8.2;Chapter 2. Explaining Political Violence: A Dynamic Modeling Approach;24
8.2.1;INTRODUCTION;24
8.2.2;STATE OF THE ART;24
8.2.3;SPECIFYING BEHAVIOR TO BE EXPLAINED: THE REFERENCE MODE;25
8.2.4;MAJOR CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS AND FEEDBACK LOOPS;26
8.2.5;MODEL STRUCTURE;26
8.2.6;POLITICAL OPPOSITION AND SUPPORT;27
8.2.7;VIOLENCE;28
8.2.8;FLUCTUATING GROWTH RUN OF THE MODEL;29
8.2.9;A STABLE GROWTH RUN OF THE MODEL;29
8.2.10;CONCLUSION;29
8.2.11;REFERENCES;30
8.3;Chapter 3. Technology – Generating or Deterring Conflict in Europe;32
8.3.1;INTRODUCTION;32
8.3.2;THE THREAT;33
8.3.3;NEW TECHNOLOGY - PGM;33
8.3.4;PGM MILITIA SQUADS;34
8.3.5;LONG RANGE PUNISHMENT OF ATTACKING ARMOR;34
8.3.6;CONCLUSION;35
8.3.7;REFERENCES;35
8.4;Chapter 4. Aid Programs to People to Offset Terrorism;38
8.4.1;LEADERSHIP;38
8.4.2;OUR ENVIRONMENT;38
8.4.3;THIRD WORLD NEEDS;39
8.4.4;HUMAN RIGHTS;39
8.4.5;OUR OPPORTUNITY;39
8.4.6;TERRORISM;40
8.4.7;THE FUTURE;40
8.4.8;AGGRESSIVE CONCERNS;41
8.4.9;REFERENCES;41
8.5;Chapter 5. Impact of Technological Developments on Conflict Resolution in South Asia with Special Reference to India and Pakistan;42
8.5.1;References;46
9;PART II: MODELING AS A WAY OF DESCRIBING NATIONAL PROCESSES;48
9.1;Chapter 6. Global/World Modeling Via Simulation in Creating Supplementary Ways for Improving International Stability (SWIIS);50
9.1.1;References;51
9.2;Chapter 7. A New Generation of the "FUGI" Model – A Global Early Warning System for National and International Conflicts;54
9.2.1;INTRODUCTION: SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY;54
9.2.2;MAIN FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM;55
9.2.3;MEASURES TO PREVENT LARGE-SCALE OCCURRENCES OF CONFLICTS;56
9.2.4;CONCLUSION;57
9.2.5;REFERENCES;57
9.3;Chapter 8. On Trusting C3I, Particularly in SDI: When the Pie Meets the Sky;72
9.3.1;ABSTRACT;72
9.3.2;THE ASCENDENCY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AS HUMAN HELPMATE: AGREEABLE INTIMACY OR ALIEN INTERVENTION?;72
9.3.3;THE NEW STATUS OF HUMAN OPERATORS: SUPERVISORY CONTROL;73
9.3.4;SUPERVISORY CONTROL IN MILITARY C3.: DISTRIBUTED DECISION-MAKING;75
9.3.5;STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE: PUSHING DOM BEYOND ITS LIMITS;76
9.3.6;CONCLUSIONS;77
9.3.7;REFERENCES;77
9.4;Chapter 9. On Dynamic Models for International Stability;78
9.4.1;INTRODUCTION;78
9.4.2;MODEL CONCEPTS;78
9.4.3;TYPE OF MODELS;79
9.4.4;APPLICATION: A SOCIO-POLITICAL PROCESS;80
9.5;Chapter 10. Neighborhood Relations and International Conflicts;86
9.5.1;INTRODUCTION;86
9.5.2;CONCEPT OF NEIGHBORHOOD;86
9.5.3;MODEL OF THE WORLD AS A SET OF NATION STATES;87
9.5.4;CONFLICT: CONCEPT AND CAUSES;87
9.5.5;CONFLICT RESOLUTION;88
9.5.6;CONCLUSION;89
9.5.7;ACKNOWLEDGEMENT;89
9.5.8;REFERENCES;89
9.6;Chapter 11. The Socio-systems Theory Based on Activity;92
9.6.1;INTRODUCTION;92
9.6.2;ACTIVITY;92
9.6.3;ACTIVE SYSTEMS;93
9.6.4;SOCIO-SYSTEMS' STRUCTURE;94
9.6.5;ACTIVITY MECHANISM;94
9.6.6;COMPETITION, COOPERATION,CONFRONTATION;95
9.6.7;CONCLUSIONS;95
9.6.8;REFERENCES;95
10;PART III: MULTIOBJECTIVE, MULTICRITERIA SYSTEM TRADE-OFFS ;98
10.1;Chapter 13. Resolution of Retributive Conflicts;106
10.1.1;GAINS AS BENEFITS AND COSTS;106
10.1.2;CONFLICT RESOLUTION AS A MULTI-CRITERION PROCES;108
10.1.3;THE DECOMPOSITION OF ISSUES;108
10.1.4;COMPARING APPLES AND ORANGES -TRADING OFF INTANGIBLES;108
10.1.5;REFERENCES;109
10.2;Chapter 12. Trade-off Convergence in Technologically Induced Conflict;100
10.2.1;INTRODUCTION;100
10.2.2;TECHNOLOGICAL CONFLICT AND POLITICAL REGIME;101
10.2.3;TECHNOLOGICAL CONFLICT AND TRADE-OFFS IN THE NATIONAL CONTEXT;101
10.2.4;TECHNOLOGICAL CONFLICT AND TRADE-OFFS IN THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT;102
10.2.5;STEERING A COURSE BETWEEN TRADE-OFFS;103
10.2.6;REFERENCES;105
10.3;Chapter 14. Technologies of Mediation: An Assessment of Methods for the Mediation of International Conflicts;110
10.3.1;THE VARIETY OF MEDIATION TECHNIQUES;110
10.3.2;PHILOSOPHY AND PREMISES;111
10.3.3;IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NEXT STEPS;112
10.3.4;Q METHODOLOGY;113
10.3.5;CONCLUDING REMARKS;117
10.3.6;REFERENCES;118
10.4;Chapter 15. Hierarchical Multiobjective Risk Trade-off Framework for Conflict Resolution Through Negotiation;120
10.4.1;INTRODUCTION;120
10.4.2;HIERARCHICAL MULTIOBJECTIVE RISK TRADE-OFF FRAMEWORK;120
10.4.3;RISK IMPACT ANALYSIS;122
10.4.4;EPILOGUE;124
10.4.5;REFERENCES;124
11;PART IV: INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT RESOLUTION MEANS ;126
11.1;Chapter 16. A Technological Equivalent of War;128
11.1.1;INTRODUCTION;128
11.1.2;FUNDING;129
11.1.3;INTEGRATIVE BARGAINING;130
11.1.4;STRUCTURAL VIOLENCE;131
11.1.5;NONVIOLENT DEFENSE;132
11.1.6;SUMMARY;133
11.1.7;MISCELLANEOUS QUESTIONS;134
11.1.8;REFERENCES;134
11.2;Chapter 17. The Language and Technology of Peacefare;136
11.2.1;THE PICTURE OF PEACE IS ABSTRACT;136
11.2.2;THE IMAGE OF WAR IS REAL;136
11.2.3;WARFARE IS OBSOLETE;137
11.2.4;PILOT PROJECT FOR PEACEFARE;137
11.2.5;WHAT WOULD PEACEFARE LOOK LIKE;137
11.2.6;THE GEOMETRY OF WAR AND PEACE;138
11.2.7;THE POLITICS OF PEACE;139
11.2.8;CONCLUSION;139
11.2.9;THE FRACTALS OF WAR AND PEACE;139
11.2.10;REFERENCES;139
11.3;Chapter 18. Societal Vulnerability and (Inter)National Stability;142
11.3.1;Introduction;142
11.3.2;The concept and consequences of vulnerability;142
11.3.3;Causes of vulnerability;143
11.3.4;Some dangers of vulnerability;144
11.3.5;Perceived vulnerability;144
11.3.6;Reduction of vulnerability in order to enhance more cooperative security;145
11.3.7;Conclusions and recommendations;145
11.3.8;references;146
11.4;Chapter 19. Swedish Technological Contributions to International Disarmament and Conflict Resolution;148
11.4.1;INTRODUCTION;148
11.4.2;COMMENTS ON THE THEME OF THE CONFERENCE;148
11.4.3;CONTRIBUTIONS BY THE NATIONAL DEFENCE RESEARCH INSTITUTE;148
11.4.4;THE NEED FOR TECHNICAL PEACE RESEARCH;149
11.4.5;STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SIPRI);150
11.4.6;SOME CONCLUSIONS;150
11.4.7;SWEDISH ENGINEERS FOR THE PREVENTION OF NUCLEAR WAR;150
11.4.8;REFERENCES;150
12;PART V: COOPERATIVE SECURITY SYSTEM - A CLOSED-LOOP ADAPTIVE CONTROL ;152
12.1;Chapter 20 .A Cybernetic Approach to Resolving International Conflicts;154
12.1.1;PRINCIPLES OF CYBERNETICS AND THEIR APPLICATION;154
12.1.2;APPLYING CYBERNETICS TO RESOLVING INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS;155
12.1.3;PRESENT SITUATION - IS THERE A WAY OUT;156
12.1.4;MANY POSSIBLE CATTSFS FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT EXIST;157
12.1.5;DIFFERENT STATES AND DIFFERENT PERCEPTIONS TO OBTAIN PEACE;157
12.1.6;DECREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF WAR BY INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF PEACE;159
12.1.7;WHAT IS TO BE DONE NOW;159
12.1.8;REFERENCES;160
12.2;Chapter 21. Social Values and Active Peace;162
12.2.1;INTRODUCTION;162
12.2.2;BACKGROUND DISCUSSION OF EARLIER SWIIS ACTIVITIES;162
12.2.3;INTERACTIONS AMONG NATIONS;163
12.2.4;PROBLEMS OF PERCEPTION;163
12.2.5;GOALS AND VALUE DISSONANCE;164
12.2.6;CONTRASTS BETWEEN TRANSACTIONAL CULTURE AND REPRESENTATIONAL CULTURE;164
12.2.7;THE REPRESENTATIONAL CHARACTER OF CULTURE IN EASTERN EUROPE;164
12.2.8;SUMMARY;166
12.2.9;REFERENCES;166
12.3;Chapter 22. Advances in Information Technology and the Redistribution of Power;168
12.3.1;ABSTRACT;168
12.3.2;INTRODUCTION;168
12.3.3;TECHNOLOGY REVIEW;168
12.3.4;DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS ARCHITECTURE AND COMPUTER INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING (CIM);169
12.3.5;STABILITY IMPLICATIONS OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY;170
12.3.6;CONCLUSIONS;171
12.3.7;REFERENCES;171
13;Author Index;172