Chelst / Canbolat Value-Added Decision Making for Managers

1. Auflage 2011
ISBN: 978-1-4398-9755-3
Verlag: Taylor & Francis
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 578 Seiten

Developed from the authors’ longstanding course on decision and risk analysis, Value-Added Decision Making for Managers explores the important interaction between decisions and management action and clarifies the barriers to rational decision making. The authors analyze strengths and weaknesses of the best alternatives, enabling decision makers to improve on these alternatives by adding value and reducing risk.

The core of the text addresses decisions that involve selecting the best alternative from diverse choices. The decisions include buying a car, picking a supplier or home contractor, selecting a technology, picking a location for a manufacturing plant or sports stadium, hiring an employee or selecting among job offers, deciding on the size of a sales force, making a late design change, and sourcing to emerging markets. The book also covers more complex decisions arising in negotiations, strategy, and ethics that involve multiple dimensions simultaneously.

Numerous activities interspersed throughout the text highlight real-world situations, helping readers see how the concepts presented can be used in their own work environment or personal life. Each chapter also includes discussion questions and references.
Web Resource
The book’s website at http://ise.wayne.edu/research/decision.php offers tutorials of Logical Decisions software for multi-objective decisions and Precision Tree software for probabilistic decisions. Directions for downloading student versions of the DecisionTools Suite and Logical Decisions software can be found in the appendices. Password-protected PowerPoint presentations for each chapter and solutions to all of the numeric examples are available for instructors.

Zielgruppe

Students of operations research and industrial engineering.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Chelst, Kenneth

Canbolat, Yavuz Burak

Fachgebiete

• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Management Unternehmensführung
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Wirtschaftswissenschaften Literatur für Manager

Inhaltsverzeichnis

STRUCTURING HARD DECISIONS

The Case for a Structured Analytic Decision Process

Goal and Overview

The Challenge

Decision Analysis Effectiveness
Do Not Trust Your Gut

Maximize versus Satisfice

Established Biases
What Makes a Decision Difficult?
Symptoms of a Poor Decision Making Process
Transparent and Efficient Decision Making

Framing Decisions with Influence Diagrams

Goal and Overview

Components of an Influence Diagram

Learn by Simple Example: Automation Investment

Divide and Delay Decision: Plan an RSVP Theater Party

Arrows in Complex Influence Diagram: New Product Late-to-Market

Multiple Objective Influence Diagram: Buying a Used Car

Oglethorpe Power Corporation: Actual Case

Influence Diagram Construction: Review

Solving Influence Diagrams

Recent Articles on Influence Diagrams

Common Decision Templates

Goal and Overview

In-House or Outsource (Make or Buy)

Change (Upgrade) or Keep Status Quo

Products: Launch, Portfolios, and Project Management

Project Management: Product Development

Capacity Planning

Technology Choice

Personnel and Organizational Selection: Hire Faculty

Facility Location: Sports Arena

Bidding: Make Offer

Personal: University Selection

Information Gathering: Market Research, Prototypes, and Pilot Plants

Summary

DECISIONS WITH MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES

Structure Decisions with Multiple Objectives

Goal and Overview

Description of the Overall MAUT Process
Basic Terminology

Fundamental Objectives

Objectives Hierarchy: Examples

Top-Down Approach: Global Facility Location

Bottom-Up Approach: Kitchen Remodeling
Measures
Example: Buy a Used Car

Identify Alternatives

Real-World Applications

Structured Trade-Offs for Multiple Objective Decisions: Multi-Attribute Utility Theory

Goal and Overview

Concepts and Terminology
Compare Alternatives

Trade-Off Conflicting Objectives
Single-Measure Utility Function: Proportional Scores

Aggregate Utility: Total Score for Each Alternative

Assessing Weights Revisited: Large Set of Measures
Assess Individual (Single-Measure) Utility Function: Nonlinear Utility Functions and Constructed Measures
Group Decision Making
Uncertainty

Contractor Selection for Kitchen Remodeling

Real-World Application: Multi-Attribute Risk Analysis in Nuclear Emergency Management

Selection of Best Conformal Coating Process
Nonlinear Additivity: Multiplicative Form

Research Issues with Weight Elicitation

Value and Risk Management for Multi-Objective Decisions

Goal and Overview

Synthesize Weighted Sum
Comparison of Two Alternatives

Robustness of a Decision Using Sensitivity Analysis

Value Enhancement with Hybrid: Lighting Example

Better Alternative through Value Enhancement: Kitchen Remodeling

Value Enhancement: Warehouse Selection

Value Enhancement and Risk Management: Process Selection

Risk Analysis and Management
MAUT and Subject Matter Experts: Process
Applications

Multiple Objective Decisions with Limited Data: Analytical Hierarchy Process

Goal and Overview

AHP Procedure Details and Snow Blower Example
Commercial Snow Throwers Selection
Select a Job
Software Selection
Growth of AHP Pair-Wise Comparison Effort

Comparison of AHP versus MAUT

Application Capsule: Compare AHP with MAUT: A Case Study

DECISIONS AND MANAGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Value-Added Risk-Management Framework and Strategies

Goal and Overview

Overview of the Risk Management Process

Risk Identification

Risk Quantification

Systems Risk Analysis

Risk Mitigation Framework

Risk Communication, Perception, and Awareness

Alternative Risk Mitigation and Elimination Strategies

Spreadsheet Simulation for Decisions with Uncertainty

Goal and Overview

Using @Risk Spreadsheet Simulation

Project Acceleration Investment
Profit Forecasting for Drug Development
Global Sourcing Risk Analysis
Real-World Applications @Risk

Decisions with Uncertainty: Decision Trees

Goal and Overview

Early Users of Decision Trees

Concepts

Influence Diagrams and Schematic Trees
Constructing and Analyzing a Simple Decision Tree
Risk Profile/Cumulative Risk Profile

Complex Symmetric Decision Tree: Make or Buy
Asymmetric Tree: Design Change

Sequential Decisions
Robustness of Optimal Solution through Sensitivity Analysis
Real-World Applications

Structured Risk Management and the Value of Information and Delay
Goal and Overview
Identify High-Impact Variables
Risk Profiles and Structured Risk Management

Make or Buy Example: Discrete Decision Tree Analysis

Perfect and Imperfect Information
Imperfect Information: Bayes’ Theorem
Conditional Decisions and Information Seeking Trees: Flu Virus Detection Technology

Contingent Contracts Reduce Risk
Real Options

Risk Attitude and Utility Theory
Goals and Overview
Utility Theory: Concepts and Terminology
Utility Function Assessment

Change the Risk Equation: Insurance and Risk Sharing
Case Study: Phillips Petroleum and Onshore U.S. Oil Exploration

Utility Theory: Practical and Theoretical Challenges
Current Research in Utility Theory

CHALLENGES TO "RATIONAL" DECISIONS

Forecast Bias and Expert Interviews
Goals and Overview
Motivational and Personal Biases
Point Estimate and Narrow Ranges: Overconfidence
Faulty Probability Reasoning

Availability and Representativeness
Confirmation and Interpretation Bias

Expert Interview: How to Identify and Reduce Bias
Research into Probabilistic Forecasts

Decision Bias

Goal and Overview

Sunk Cost and Escalation of Commitment

Framing Bias

Status Quo and Omission Bias

Regret

Fairness

Mood

Groupthink, Optimism, and Miscellaneous Biases

DECISIONS WITH MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVES

Value-Added Negotiations

Goal and Overview

Understanding Negotiations

Challenges to Effective Negotiation

Managing the Negotiation Process
Negotiating a Deal

Negotiating a Dispute

Agents and Multiparty Negotiations

Negotiating across Border

Negotiating Ethically
Conclusion

Ethical Decisions

Goal and Overview

Ethical Decision-Making Framework

Values

Biases, Myopia, and Don’t Want to Know
Pressures Undermine Ethical Balance
Short Cases

Strategic Direction, Planning, and Decision Making

Goal and Overview

Strategic Planning

Elements of Strategic Decisions
Situation Assessment: SWOT Analysis
Basic Tools: Decision Hierarchy and Strategy Table

Strategy Development Steps for Large Organizations

Scenario Planning

Appendix A: Instructions for Downloading the DecisionTools Suite

Appendix B: Instructions for Downloading Logical Decisions

Index

Exercises and References appear at the end of each chapter.

Über Autor(innen)

Kenneth Chelst is a professor of operations research and director of engineering management programs in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Wayne State University. An Edelman Award finalist, he is also co-principal investigator of the NSF-funded Project MINDSET and a senior consultant for the International City and County Management Association. He earned a Ph.D. in operations research from MIT. His research interests include engineering management, emergency service management, global engineering, and the use of operations research to enhance K-12 mathematics education.
Yavuz Burak Canbolat is a senior manager in the Decision Support Group at Abbott Laboratories. He was previously an associate manager in decision analysis for Merck & Co., Inc., and an instructor in the Industrial Engineering Department at Qafqaz University. He earned a Ph.D. in industrial engineering from Wayne State University. His research interests include decision analysis and operations research techniques in R&D portfolio evaluation and management, strategic planning, financial and economic analysis, global operations and logistics, risk analysis, and capacity planning.