Brown Rational Choice and Judgment

Decision Analysis for the Decider
1. Auflage 2005
ISBN: 978-0-471-71688-4
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, Band 1, 280 Seiten, E-Book

Reihe: Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management

The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision.
Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision usingquantitative models of the decider's factual and valuejudgments. DA is already widely used in business, government,medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resourcespresent only the logic and models rather than demonstrating howthese methods can be effectively applied to the real world. Thisbook offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusingon decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to makebetter, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematicsbeyond arithmetic.
Examining how deciders think about their choices, this bookprovides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect soundmodeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build onthe thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; theyprovide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing toprovide; they produce results that the decider can use; and theyare based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider.The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors asthe use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjectiveknowledge.
Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from theauthor's own extensive consulting experience, the bookquickly engages readers and enables them to master decisionanalysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiarsituations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfoldsin the real world. A term project is presented in the finalchapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-makingproblem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation.A sample report is provided in the appendix.
Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances tosophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in bothpublic and private enterprise, including:
· Modeling decision-making under conditions ofuncertainty or multiple objectives
· Risk analysis and assessment
· Communicating and justifying controversialdecisions
· Personal life choices and political judgments
· Adapting decision aid to organizations
The book's broad applicability makes it an excellentresource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-makingcourses in a variety of fields, including public policy, businessmanagement, systems engineering and general education.
An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all theproblems in the book is available from the Wiley editorialdepartment (email [e-mail]) ordirectly from [e-mail].

Autoren/Hrsg.

Brown, Rex

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface.
Who Might Use This Book.
Background.
Substance of this Book.
Pedagogy.
Demands on Students and Instructor.
Other Approaches, Other Materials.
Author Background.
Acknowledgments.
Prolog: A Baby Delivery Dilemma.
1. Basics and Overview.
2. Uses of Decision Analysis.
Appendix 2A: Decision Analysis Reflects on His Work.
3. Evaluating a Choice Qualitatively.
4. Quantitative Aid to Rational Choice.
Appendix 4A: Business Decision Tree Example.
Appendix 4B: Private Example: Study or Play?
5. Describing Outcomes.
6. Taking Preference Into Account.
7. Choice Under Uncertainty.
Appendix 7A. Technical Notes.
8. Decision Aiding Strategy.
Appendix 8A. Influence Sketches.
9. Aiding the Professional Decider.
Appendix 9A. Environmental Regulation Case Study.
10. Assessing and Inferring Probabilities.
11. Eliciting Preferences.
12. Applied Term Project.
Appendix 12A. Student Project Report.
Epilog.
References.
Glossary of Concepts and Terms.
Index.

Über Autor(innen)

REX BROWN was trained as a social scientist and statistician. He currently holds the position of Distinguished Senior Fellow in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University. He has worked as a decision-making adviser to government and business leaders, and has taught decision analysis for statistics, psychology, and management programs at Harvard Business School, Cambridge University, and the London School of Economics and Political Science.