Bowen / Elbahtimy / Hobbs Trust in Nuclear Disarmament Verification

1. Auflage 2018
ISBN: 978-3-319-40988-7
Verlag: Springer Nature Switzerland
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 179 Seiten

Reihe: Progress in Mathematics

This book explores how human factors, in particular the contested notion of trust, influence the conduct and practice of arms control verification. In the nuclear arena, disarmament verification is often viewed purely in terms of a dispassionate, scientific process. Yet this view is fundamentally flawed since the technical impossibility of 100 per cent verification opens the door to a host of complex issues and questions regarding the process and its outcomes. Central among these is the fact that those involved in any verification inspection process must inevitably conduct their work in a space that falls well short of absolute certainty. The lines between scientific enquiry and human psychology can become blurred and outcomes have the potential to be influenced by perceptions.  Drawing on extensive empirical evidence, the authors explore the complex interplay between evidence-based judgements and perceptions of intentions that frames the science of verification. The book provides new insights into the role and influence of human factors in the verification process, shedding light on this 'blind spot' of verification research. It is an invaluable resource for practitioners, academics and students working in arms control and disarmament.

Professor Wyn Bowen is Head of the School of Security Studies at King's College London. He is author of Living on the Edge: Iran and the Practice of Nuclear Hedging (Palgrave Macmillan, 2016)  Dr Hassan Elbahtimy is a Post-Doctoral Researcher within the Centre for Science and Security Studies. He was previously a Senior Researcher at VERTIC and worked on the Arms Control Desk of the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs  Dr Christopher Hobbs is Co-Director of the Centre for Science and Security Studies and a Reader in Science and Security in the War Studies Department at King's College London. He is author of Exploring Regional Responses to a Nuclear Iran: Nuclear Dominoes? (Palgrave Macmillan, 2014) and editor of Open Source Intelligence in the Twenty-First Century: New Approaches and Challenges (Palgrave Macmillan, 2014)  Matthew Moran is Co-Director of the Centre for Science and Security Studies and a Reader in International Security in the Department of War Studies at King's College London. He is author of Living on the Edge: Iran and the Practice of Nuclear Hedging (Palgrave Macmillan, 2016) and Exploring Regional Responses to a Nuclear Iran: Nuclear Dominoes? (Palgrave Macmillan, 2014).

Autoren/Hrsg.

Bowen, Wyn Q.

Elbahtimy, Hassan

Hobbs, Christopher

Moran, Matthew

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Acknowledgements;5
2;Contents;7
3;List of Tables;8
4;Chapter 1: Introduction;9
4.1;The Enduring Appeal of Nuclear Weapons;11
4.2;Beyond the Politics of Nuclear Disarmament;15
4.3;The Challenges of Verification;17
4.4;Structure and Content;20
5;Chapter 2: Verification in the Nuclear Arena: Nature, Significance and Practice;26
5.1;Preventing Proliferation in the Nuclear Arena;29
5.2;Developing a Safeguards Regime;32
5.3;Verification Weaknesses: Iraq and North Korea;33
5.4;The Challenge of Assessing Compliance;36
5.5;Verifying Iran’s Nuclear Activities: A Case Study in Complexity;39
5.6;Verification and Nuclear Testing;41
5.7;Towards a Comprehensive Test Ban;43
5.8;An International Verification System to Monitor Nuclear Testing;44
5.9;Efforts to Reduce Nuclear Weapons Numbers;46
5.10;Onsite Inspections at Nuclear Weapons Facilities;47
5.11;Further Reductions in Nuclear Weapons Numbers;48
5.12;Conclusion: The Limits of Progress;50
6;Chapter 3: Nuclear Warhead Dismantlement Verification: Opportunities and Challenges;57
6.1;The Practice of Nuclear Warhead Dismantlement;60
6.2;Challenges in Verifying Nuclear Warhead Dismantlement;62
6.2.1;Deception and Diversion;63
6.3;On-Site Inspections Through Managed Access;65
6.4;Information Barriers and the Authentication of Warheads;67
6.5;Ensuring Chain-of-Custody;70
6.6;Recent Efforts to Address Dismantlement Verification Challenges;72
6.7;Conclusion;75
7;Chapter 4: The Human Side of Verification: Trust and Confidence;81
7.1;The Human Factor in Disarmament Verification;83
7.2;The Nature of Trust and Confidence;85
7.3;Thinking About Trust: Multidisciplinary Approaches;89
7.4;Trust and the Practice of Verification: Towards a Conceptual Framework;91
7.4.1;Vulnerability and Risk;92
7.4.2;The Expectation of Favourable Behaviour;94
7.4.3;Signals, Frames and Trust-Building;96
7.5;Conceptualising Trust and the Practice of Verification;99
7.6;Conclusion;100
8;Chapter 5: Simulating Disarmament Verification: Design and Methods;104
8.1;Why Simulate?;105
8.2;Developing a Verification Scenario;108
8.2.1;A Fictional Verification Scenario;108
8.2.2;A Robust Verification Protocol;110
8.2.3;The Verification Tool Box;111
8.2.4;The Verification Mission: Investigating an Interruption in Treaty Monitoring Procedures;112
8.3;Recruitment, Preparation and Engagement of Participants;114
8.4;Playing the ‘Game’;115
8.5;Approaching Data Collection;117
8.5.1;Participant Observation;118
8.5.2;Situation Reports (SitReps);118
8.5.3;Semi-structured Interviews;119
8.5.4;Research Questionnaires;120
8.5.5;Focus Groups;121
8.5.6;Summary of Data Sources;121
8.6;Conclusion;122
9;Chapter 6: Trust and Verification: Empirical Insights;125
9.1;Introduction;125
9.2;Vulnerability, Risk and the Nature of the Game;127
9.2.1;Quantifying Risk;129
9.3;Positive Expectations in the Verification Context;133
9.3.1;Integrity and Technical Competency;135
9.4;Trust, Signalling and Interpretation;138
9.4.1;The Impact of Information Flows;139
9.4.2;Intergroup Relations and Trusting Behaviour;145
9.5;Conclusion;148
10;Chapter 7: Conclusion: Looking to the Future;153
10.1;Future Avenues for Disarmament Verification Research;155
11;Bibliography;159
11.1;Books;159
11.2;Journal Articles and Reports;160
11.3;Online Articles;168
12;Index;172