Bjerkholt / Rosted Macroeconomic Medium-Term Models in the Nordic Countries

1. Auflage 2017
ISBN: 978-1-4832-9546-6
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, Band Volume 164, 334 Seiten, Web PDF

Reihe: Contributions to Economic Analysis

This is the first major joint presentation of macroeconomic models of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Its origin is a selection of the presentations at a seminar on macroeconomic modelling in the Nordic countries held in Lyngby, Denmark, 8-9 October 1984, sponsored by the Nordic Ministries of Finance.The book is concentrated around a thorough presentation of the main macroeconomic medium-term models used in government planning and policy-making in each of the four countries. These models are: in Denmark, ADAM, developed by the Central Statistical Office, in Finland, KESSU, developed within the Ministry of Finance, in Norway, MODAG, developed by the Central Bureau of Statistics, and in Sweden, EMMA, developed within the Ministry of Finance.An introduction to Nordic macroeconomic models is provided, as well as significant features of the institutional use of models within governments in these countries. On the basis of the data presented in the book, the effects of devaluation, wage increases and fiscal policy in the Nordic economies can be compared with each other as well as with other small open economies.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Bjerkholt, O.

Rosted, J.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Front Cover;1
2;Macroeconomic Medium-Term Models in the Nordic Countries;4
3;Copyright Page;5
4;Table of Contents;10
5;Introduction to the Series;6
6;Preface;8
7;Chapter 1.
Traditions in Nordic Macroeconomic Modelling;12
7.1;References;23
8;Part I:
Danish Models;26
8.1;Chapter 2.
The Danish Macroeconomic Model ADAM;26
8.1.1;1. Introduction;26
8.1.2;2. Model Structure;28
8.1.3;3. Private consumption expenditure;32
8.1.4;4. Fixed-capital formation;36
8.1.5;5. Changes in stocks;38
8.1.6;6. Exports;38
8.1.7;7. Gross output and imports;39
8.1.8;8. Government sector output;42
8.1.9;9. Employment;42
8.1.10;10. Working hours;44
8.1.11;11. Prices of industrial-sector output;44
8.1.12;12. Prices of final demand components;46
8.1.13;13. Wage regulating price index;46
8.1.14;14. Compensation of employees;46
8.1.15;15. Transfers;47
8.1.16;16. Direct taxes;48
8.1.17;17. Indirect taxes;50
8.1.18;18. Balance of payments;50
8.1.19;19. Public and private sector balance;51
8.1.20;20. Output originating;51
8.2;Chapter 3.
Fiscal Effects and Multipliers in the Danish Economy;54
8.2.1;1. The operation of fiscal policy;54
8.2.2;2. Automatic stabilizers;55
8.2.3;3. The fiscal effect;58
8.2.4;4. Results;61
8.2.5;References;65
8.3;Chapter 4.
Real Wages, Exchange Rates and Employment in the Danish Economy;66
8.3.1;1. Determination of imports and exports;66
8.3.2;2. Calculated multiplier effects;70
8.3.3;3. The uncertainty of the calculations;76
8.3.4;4. The elasticity between real wages and employment;80
8.3.5;References;82
8.4;Chapter 5.
Financial Model Building and Financial Multipliers of the Danish Economy;84
8.4.1;1. The structure of the financial sector model (FINDAN);85
8.4.2;2. Effects of open market operations;89
8.4.3;3. Linking FIND AN with the real sector;91
8.4.4;4. Effects of changes in the discount rate and the foreign rate of interest;94
8.4.5;5. Conclusions;94
8.4.6;References;95
9;Part II:
Finnish Models;10
9.1;Chapter 6.
KESSU III: An Econometric Planning Model for the Finnish Economy;96
9.1.1;1. Introduction;96
9.1.2;2. Main features;97
9.1.3;3. Model structure outline;99
9.1.4;4. Central economic blocks;105
9.1.5;5. Concluding remarks;115
9.1.6;References;115
9.2;Chapter 7.
KESSU III: The Effect of Wage Increases and Fiscal Policy;116
9.2.1;1. Introduction;116
9.2.2;2. The effects of a nominal wage increase;117
9.2.3;3. The effects of fiscal policy;131
9.2.4;4. Wage increase and unchanged current account;140
9.2.5;Appendix;143
9.2.6;References;143
9.3;Chapter 8.
Monetary Policy in BOF3, A Quarterly Model of the Finnish Economy;144
9.3.1;1. Introduction;144
9.3.2;2. The structure of the monetary block in BOF3;146
9.3.3;3. Observations on the actual monetary equations;151
9.3.4;4. Simulation experiments;151
9.3.5;5. Conclusion;160
9.3.6;References;161
10;Part III:
Norwegian Models;11
10.1;Chapter 9. MODAG A: A Medium-Term Macroeconomic Model of the
Norwegian Economy;164
10.1.1;1. Introduction;164
10.1.2;2. Main features of MODAG A;167
10.1.3;3. A closer look at some of the submodels;176
10.1.4;4. Multipliers estimated by
MODAG A;193
10.1.5;5. Some main conclusions;202
10.1.6;Appendix A:
Survey of important price and quantity elasticities in the submodels of MODAG A;203
10.1.7;Appendix B:
A Simplified equation system and a summary of the main dimensions of MODAG A;215
10.1.8;References;219
10.2;Chapter 10.
The Effects of Fiscal Policy in MODAG A;224
10.2.1;1. Main features of MODAG A;225
10.2.2;2. Dynamic multipliers of MODAG A;227
10.2.3;3. Some critical remarks;252
10.2.4;References;256
10.3;Chapter 11. Analysing the Effects of Changes in Wages and Exchange Rates with
MODAG A;260
10.3.1;1. Introduction;260
10.3.2;2. Effects of changes in wage rates;262
10.3.3;3. Effects of changes in exchange rates;281
10.3.4;4. Summary;286
10.3.5;References;287
11;Part IV:
Swedish Models;11
11.1;Chapter 12.
An Econometric Model for Medium-Term Analysis (EMMA);290
11.1.1;1. Introduction;290
11.1.2;2. The Model;291
11.1.3;3. Private consumption;293
11.1.4;4. Private investments;295
11.1.5;5. Government;295
11.1.6;6. The current account;297
11.1.7;7. Prices and wages;299
11.1.8;8. Labour market;301
11.1.9;9. Summary;302
11.1.10;Appendix 1 List of variables in EMMA;303
11.1.11;References;305
11.2;Chapter 13.
An Aggregate Model for Medium-Term Analysis (AMMA);306
11.2.1;1. Introduction;306
11.2.2;2. An overview of the model;307
11.2.3;3. The labour market;308
11.2.4;4. Private consumption;310
11.2.5;5. Private investments;311
11.2.6;6. Balance of trade;312
11.2.7;7. Prices and wages;313
11.2.8;8. Simulations of devaluation and wage decreases;316
11.2.9;9. Fiscal multipliers in AMMA;323
11.2.10;10. Concluding remarks;326
11.2.11;References;326
12;Subject index;328