Betz Prediction or Prophecy?
2006
ISBN: 978-3-8350-9053-8
Verlag: Deutscher Universitätsverlag
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark
The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences
E-Book, Englisch, 280 Seiten, eBook
ISBN: 978-3-8350-9053-8
Verlag: Deutscher Universitätsverlag
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark
Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
Dr. Gregor Betz ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter von Prof. Dr. Holm Tetens am Fachbereich Philosophie und Geisteswissenschaften der Freien Universität Berlin.
Zielgruppe
Research
Weitere Infos & Material
1;Foreword;6
2;Preface;8
3;Contents;10
4;List of Figures;13
5;List of Tables;15
6;Chapter 1 Introduction;16
7;Part I Assessing the predictive limits of economics;34
7.1;Chapter 2 Recent performance of economic forecasts;35
7.2;Chapter 3 A historical perspective on economic forecast performance;56
7.3;Chapter 4 Forecast performance in natural sciences;66
8;Part II Understanding the predictive limits of economics;92
8.1;Chapter 5 Predictability of complex systems;93
8.2;Chapter 6 The quality of data;104
8.3;Chapter 7 Expectations and reflexiveness;124
8.4;Chapter 8 Sensitive dependence on initial conditions;141
8.5;Chapter 9 Experiment and simulation;155
8.6;Chapter 10 Unrealistic- assumption explanations;173
9;Part III Living with the predictive limits of economics;185
9.1;Chapter 11 Consequences for traditional decision making;186
9.2;Chapter 12 Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance;206
9.3;Chapter 13 Post- normal science;239
10;Appendix;263
11;Bibliography;270
12;Index;282
Assessing the predictive limits of economics.- Recent performance of economic forecasts.- A historical perspective on economic forecast performance.- Forecast performance in natural sciences.- Understanding the predictive limits of economics.- Predictability of complex systems.- The quality of data.- Expectations and reflexiveness.- Sensitive dependence on initial conditions.- Experiment and simulation.- Unrealistic-assumption explanations.- Living with the predictive limits of economics.- Consequences for traditional decision making.- Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance.- Post-normal science.
