Alcamo Environmental Futures

The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis
1. Auflage 2008
ISBN: 978-0-08-093298-9
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 212 Seiten, Web PDF

As scientists and policymakers try to come to grips with problems such as climate change and risks to biodiversity, they turn more and more frequently to the method of scenario analysis to better understand the future of these problems. Over the last few years scenario analysis has become one of the key tools for bridging environmental science and policy. This is the first book to sum up the current practice of environmental scenario analysis and to propose directions for improving its quality and effectiveness. Chapters are written by an international group of distinguished scenario experts and provide an excellent starting basis for first-time scenario practitioners, as well as a collection of new ideas on improving scenario practice for experienced scenario analysts.
* Comprehensive coverage and overview on environmental scenario analysis from a team of international experts
* First book to address key contemporary issues involved with environmental scenario analysis
* Gives guidelines for best practices
Benefits:
* Excellent starting base for first-time scenario practitioners
* Helps the reader to interpret scenarios and to place them into the correct context

Autoren/Hrsg.

Alcamo, J.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Front cover;1
2;Environmental Futures: The Practice Of Environmental Scenario Analysis;4
3;Copyright page;5
4;About the Authors;6
5;Preface;8
6;Contents;12
7;Chapter 1. Introduction: the Case for Scenarios of the Environment;16
7.1;1. Prologue: Environmental Scenarios and the Scientific Method;16
7.2;2. Why Build Scenarios of the Environment?;18
7.3;3. The Two Threads of Environmental Scenario Analysis;20
7.4;4. Inquiry-driven Scenario Analysis;20
7.5;5. Strategy-driven Scenario Analysis;22
7.6;6. Do Scenarios Have a Future?;23
7.7;References;25
8;Chapter 2. Towards Guidelines for Environmental Scenario Analysis;28
8.1;1. Introduction;28
8.2;2. Concepts and Definitions: What is Environmental Scenario Analysis?;29
8.3;3. Methods and Approaches;37
8.4;Acknowledgements;50
9;Chapter 3. A Survey of Environmental Scenarios;52
9.1;1. Introduction;52
9.2;2. Environmental and Environmentally-relevant Scenarios;53
9.3;3. Characterizing Scenarios;56
9.4;4. Existing Surveys;64
9.5;5. Overview of Environmental Scenarios;66
9.6;6. Closing Remarks;73
9.7;References;73
10;Chapter 4. Searching for the Future of Land: Scenarios from the Local to Global Scale;82
10.1;1. Introduction;82
10.2;2. Scenario Analysis: A Method for Anticipating the Future of Land;83
10.3;3. Global and Continental Scenarios;86
10.4;4. Regional and Local Scenarios;97
10.5;5. Main Findings of Scenarios;106
10.6;6. Towards Better Land Scenarios;109
10.7;7. Closing Remarks;114
10.8;Acknowledgements;114
10.9;References;115
11;Chapter 5. Participation in Building Environmental Scenarios;120
11.1;1. Introduction;120
11.2;2. Polycentric Governance and Participation in Environmental Policy;122
11.3;3. Designing a Participatory Process;124
11.4;4. Group Model Building in Participatory Scenario Planning;132
11.5;5. Conclusions;135
11.6;Acknowledgement;135
11.7;References;136
12;Chapter 6. The SAS Approach: Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Knowledge in Environmental Scenarios;138
12.1;1. Introduction;138
12.2;2. Features of Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios;139
12.3;3. The World Water Vision Scenarios - The World Water Situation in 2025;142
12.4;4. The SRES Scenarios of the IPCC - Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 2100;144
12.5;5. The Scenarios of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment - The State of World Ecosystems up to 2050;146
12.6;6. The GEO-4 Scenarios - The Global Environment up to 2050;150
12.7;7. The SAS (Story and Simulation) Approach to Scenario Development;152
12.8;8. Advantages of SAS;155
12.9;9. Drawbacks of SAS and a Way Forward…;156
12.10;10. Summing up;163
12.11;Acknowledgements;163
12.12;References;163
13;Chapter 7. Scale Issues in Environmental Scenario Development;166
13.1;1. Introduction;166
13.2;2. Spatial Scales;168
13.3;3. Temporal Scales;177
13.4;4. Institutional Scales;178
13.5;5. Methodological Challenges and Ways to Tackle Them;179
13.6;6. Conclusions;181
13.7;References;181
14;Chapter 6. Dealing with Surprises in Environmental Scenarios;184
14.1;1. Introduction;185
14.2;2. Concepts and Typologies of Surprises;186
14.3;3. Defining Basic Terms and Concepts;189
14.4;4. Surprises in the Society-environment Interactions;193
14.5;5. Surprises for Environmental Scenarios;196
14.6;6. Generating Surprises for Environmental Scenarios;200
14.7;7. Summary and Conclusions;205
14.8;Acknowledgements;206
14.9;References;206
15;Index;210