Pesce Economic Cycles in Emerging and Advanced Countries

Synchronization, International Spillovers and the Decoupling Hypothesis
1. Auflage 2015
ISBN: 978-3-319-17085-5
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 189 Seiten

Reihe: Contributions to Economics

?This book contributes to the debate on the decoupling of emerging economies from the advanced economies with a new, empirical investigation approach. Taking counterfactual experiments performed using a time-varying panel VAR model, the author argues that over the last thirty years, emerging economies have become less vulnerable to shocks spreading from advanced economies. This resilience to external shocks has changed in a non-progressive manner over time, with phases of greater resilience followed by others of lower resilience and vice versa. This research outlines its wave-like path and presents new results that contribute to the discussion.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Pesce, Antonio

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Preface;8
2;About the Book;10
3;List of Abbreviations;12
4;Contents;14
5;List of Figures;16
6;List of Tables;18
7;Chapter 1: Introduction;20
7.1;1.1 Context, Rational and Objective of the Monograph;20
7.2;1.2 Summary of the Chapters;25
7.3;References;26
8;Chapter 2: The Decoupling of Emerging Economies, A Long-Debated Issue but Still an Open Question: A Survey;27
8.1;2.1 Introduction;27
8.2;2.2 Different Interpretations and Measures of Decoupling;30
8.2.1;2.2.1 Interpretations;30
8.2.2;2.2.2 Measures;31
8.3;2.3 Decoupling and Globalization: Can They Coexist?;33
8.3.1;2.3.1 Increasing International Trade Linkages;33
8.3.2;2.3.2 Increasing International Financial Linkages;36
8.3.3;2.3.3 Decoupling and Increasing International Linkages: What Does Theory Say?;38
8.4;2.4 The Long-Debated Issue: A Brief Historical Excursus;39
8.5;2.5 Synchronization of Economic Cycles Between AEs and EEs;41
8.5.1;2.5.1 First Critique: Problem in Identifying Structural Breaks Using Correlation Coefficients Over Rolling Sub-samples of Data;43
8.5.2;2.5.2 Second Critique: The Correlation Coefficient May Be Counter-Intuitive in Its Treatment of Data;45
8.5.3;2.5.3 Third Critique: Distortion Due to Heteroskedasticity;47
8.6;2.6 Breakdown of Advanced and Emerging Countries´ Economic Fluctuations;49
8.7;2.7 Regression Analysis and VAR Estimations of Spillover from AEs to EEs;51
8.8;2.8 Analysis of Macroeconomic Spillovers from AEs to EEs Using Micro-funded Economic Models;54
8.8.1;2.8.1 Micro-funded Economic Models: A Brief Excursus;55
8.8.2;2.8.2 Micro-funded Models´ Contribution to the Debate About the Decoupling;62
8.9;2.9 Conclusion;62
8.10;References;64
9;Chapter 3: Is Decoupling in Action?;68
9.1;3.1 Introduction;68
9.2;3.2 Empirical Analysis of the Decoupling Hypothesis;72
9.2.1;3.2.1 Countries and Dataset;72
9.2.2;3.2.2 Synchronicity of National Economic Cycles;74
9.2.2.1;3.2.2.1 Method;74
9.2.2.2;3.2.2.2 Results;76
9.2.3;3.2.3 Responses of EEs to Adverse Scenarios in AEs: Have They Changed Over Time?;79
9.2.3.1;3.2.3.1 Econometric Model;79
9.2.3.2;3.2.3.2 Factorization of the Coefficient Vector;81
9.2.3.3;3.2.3.3 Transition Equation;82
9.2.3.4;3.2.3.4 Use of the Model to Investigate the Decoupling Hypothesis;83
9.2.3.5;3.2.3.5 Results;85
9.2.3.5.1;3.2.3.5.1 Global and Regional Cycles;85
9.2.3.5.2;3.2.3.5.2 Path of the Resilience of EEs;88
9.3;3.3 Conclusion;90
9.4;Appendix 1: Set of Countries;94
9.5;Appendix 2: Main Descriptive Statistics;95
9.6;Appendix 3: Euclidean Distance Computed on the Economic ``Deviation Cycles´´;113
9.7;Appendix 4: Priors, Posteriors Distributions and the Computational Method;115
9.8;Appendix 5: Historical Decomposition of GDP Fluctuations;118
9.9;Appendix 6: Additional Results;124
9.10;References;126
10;Chapter 4: International (Spillovers in) Macroeconomic-Credit Linkages and the Decoupling Phenomenon;129
10.1;4.1 Introduction;129
10.2;4.2 Empirical Analysis;130
10.2.1;4.2.1 Countries and Dataset;130
10.2.2;4.2.2 The Approach used to Investigate the Decoupling Hypothesis;135
10.2.2.1;4.2.2.1 The Model and the CAs;135
10.2.2.2;4.2.2.2 The Priors;137
10.2.3;4.2.3 Results: Time Path of the Resilience of EEs;138
10.2.3.1;4.2.3.1 Spread of Credit Shocks from the AEs to the EEs;139
10.2.3.2;4.2.3.2 Spread of Real Shocks from the AEs to the EEs;139
10.2.3.3;4.2.3.3 What Type of External Shock Are EEs More Sensible to?;141
10.3;4.3 Conclusion;143
10.4;Appendix 1: Set of Countries;146
10.5;Appendix 2: Main Descriptive Statistics;147
10.6;Appendix 3: Historical Decomposition of GDP Growth Rate and Credit Growth Rate;147
10.7;Appendix 4: Additional Results;147
10.7.1;Spread of Credit Shocks from the AEs to the EEs;182
10.7.2;Spread of Real Shocks from the AEs to the EEs;182
10.8;References;186
11;Chapter 5: Conclusions;187
11.1;References;189