Haugan The New Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios

Erscheinungsjahr 2012
ISBN: 978-1-4665-7056-6
Verlag: Taylor & Francis
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 420 Seiten

The ongoing changes in population, climate, and the availability of energy have resulted in unprecedented threats and opportunities that all project and program managers, portfolio managers, and public planners need to be aware of. The New Triple Constraints for Sustainable Projects, Programs, and Portfolios offers a clear look at how these constraints will impact project undertakings and overlay the current classic constraints of cost, schedule, and performance.

The book provides current facts and information on population, climate change, and energy issues—identifying trends and outlining opportunities in the form of a set of overlays (summary conclusions). The overlays are indexed to current changes that collectively represent a major turning point in the way we use resources and our growing need to seek sustainability. Identifying how changes in the new triple constraints will impact long-range planning, the book:

- Explains the rationale behind population forecasts and the likely impact on global supply and demand

- Highlights emerging trends in global temperatures and sea level rise, and the impacts on ecology, biology, and the marine environment without political spin

- Includes SWOT analyses of fossil fuels, nuclear fuel, and renewable fuels to assist in planning programs that depends upon these energy sources

- Provides expert estimates and forecasts of energy availability and alternatives

- Discusses the risks of various energy options

- Contains supporting Appendices and a comprehensive Bibliography

Most program life cycles last five to ten years, and infrastructure programs last 40 to 50 years; the text provides a rational basis for approaching the new problems that all program and portfolio managers will soon have to deal with. It will help you identify and recognize these current and projected circumstances and risks so you will understand and be prepared to make the most of the major changes impacting the upcoming decision environment.

Zielgruppe

Project, program, and portfolio managers; public planners.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Haugan, Gregory T

Fachgebiete

• Geowissenschaften Umweltwissenschaften Nachhaltigkeit
• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Internationale Beziehungen Entwicklungspolitik, Nord-Süd Beziehungen
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften Interdisziplinär Entwicklungsstudien

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Sustainability Overlay Concept and Structure
Overlay Zoning Analogy
Overlay Criteria
1. Purpose
2. Applicability
3. Specific Rules
PCE Breakdown Structure

Summary for Policymakers: PCE Overlay
Overview
Content Analysis of the Population, Climate Change, and Energy (PCE) Overlay
Overlay Scenarios
Overlay Summary
Policies to Complement the PCE Overlay
Government Policies
General Government Policies
World Policies
Private Sector Policies
Investment Policies Considering Climate Change
Program Policies

POPULATION OVERLAY

Population Constraint Overlay: Introduction

Introduction to Demography
Thomas Robert Malthus
Socialism
Demographic Transition Stages
Immigration and Migration

World Population
World Population Growth
Demographic Transitions
Health and Mortality Transition
Fertility Transition
Population Trends
Regional Differences

United States Population
Overview of U.S. Population and Projections
Hispanic Population
Racial Diversity in the United States
United States in 2050

World Age Distribution and Sustainability
Age Distributions
Sustainability: Carrying Capacity
Population Policies and Dilemmas
Population Issues and Dilemmas
Population Policies
CLIMATE CHANGE OVERLAY

Climate Change Constraint Overlay
Introduction
Definitions

History and Background of the Science
Years 1824 to 1957
Keeling Curve: 1958

Climate Manifestations
Greenhouse Effect
Svante Arrhenius Revisited
Energy Balance
Carbon Cycle
Historic CO2 Levels
CO2/Temperature Sensitivity
The Sun
Milankovich Cycles
Sunspots and Solar Flares
Solar Insolation: Amount of Sunlight
Oceans
Role of the Oceans
Temperature and Heat Content
Chemistry of the Oceans
Temperature
Global Temperature Data
Forecast Temperatures
Temperature Patterns
Temperature Extremes
United States Temperatures
Cryosphere: The Arctic and the Antarctic
Arctic
Importance of the Arctic
Arctic Warming
Permafrost
Arctic Ocean
Ice Extent and Volume
History of Sea Ice Melt
Arctic Oil Resources
Arctic Ocean Highways
Greenland
Interest in Greenland
Temperatures in Greenland
Greenland Ice Loss
Antarctica
East Antarctica
West Antarctica
Pine Island
Causes of Melting
Glaciers and Ice Sheets

Climate Change Overlays
Indicators of a Warming World
Sea Levels
Atmosphere: Weather Events
Precipitation
Storms
Arctic Linkages to Storms
Droughts
Ecosystem Impacts

Planning for a Different Future: An Overlay of Adaptation and Mitigation
Tragedy of the Commons
Planning for a Warming Future: Mitigation of CO2 Emissions
International Actions
Actions Required to Meet Mitigation Objectives
IPCC Mitigation Solutions
Stabilization Wedges
Other Emissions Mitigation Alternatives
Planning for a Warming Future: Adaptation
Adaptation Activities and Planning
Adaptation in the United States
Adaptive Capacity and Response
Climate Policy: Both Mitigation and Adaptation
Adaptation and Mitigation Interrelationships
Mitigation and Adaptation Portfolios
Costs versus Benefits
Climate Change Denial

ENERGY OVERLAY

Energy Constraint Overlay
Introduction to Energy
SWOT Analyses

Coal
Formation and Discovery
SWOT Analysis: Coal
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats

Liquid Fuels
Formation and Discovery
Production and Forecast
SWOT Analysis: Oil Industry
Strengths
Weaknesses
Peak Oil
Oil Prices
Synthesis of Weakness
Opportunities
Threats

Natural Gas
Formation and Discovery
Natural Gas Usage
Shale Gas
SWOT Analysis: Natural Gas Industry
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Clathrates: Methane Hydrate
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Technology
Threats

Nuclear Energy
History and Background
SWOT Analysis—Nuclear Energy

Renewable Energy Sources
Introduction
Overview

Solar Power
The Sun
Solar Technologies
Solar—Photovoltaic Systems
Concentrating Solar Power Systems: Thermal
SWOT Analysis: Solar Power

Wind Energy
Overview
SWOT Analysis: Wind Power

Geothermal Energy
Formation and Discovery
SWOT Analysis: Geothermal Energy
Lack of Available and Reliable Resource Information
High Exploration Risks and High Up-Front Costs
Siting, Leasing, and Permitting Issues
High Local Impact on the Environment
Access to Transmission Infrastructure
Absence of National Policy
Opportunities
Threats

Biomass Energy
Overview
Biomass
Biofuels
SWOT Analysis—Biomass

Hydropower Systems
Basic Hydroelectric Systems
Other Hydropower Systems
Tide Energy Systems
Wave Energy Systems
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)
Entropy Systems
SWOT Analysis—Hydropower
Strengths
Weaknesses
Ecosystem Damage and Loss of Land
Flow Shortage
Methane Emissions (from Reservoirs)
Population Relocation
Failure Hazard
Construction Costs and Schedules
Opportunities
Threats

Renewable Energy Sources Summary
Renewables Overview
U.S. Renewables

Program Planning in an Energy Constrained and Uncertain World
Introduction
Transportation Energy Sector
Energy General Sector

SUPPORTING APPENDICES
Appendix A: The Scientific Community Positions on Climate Change and Global Warming
Group 1: Renowned Scientific Organizations and Their Conclusions on Climate Change
Group 2: Other Scientific Society Components of the Consensus Position
National Science Academies of the G8+5 Nations (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States)
Ecological Society of America
American Physical Society
International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS)
Network of African Science Academies
European Physical Society
European Science Foundation Position Paper
Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies Policy Statement
European Federation of Geologists Position Paper
Geological Society of Australia Position Statement
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) Resolution
Royal Meteorological Society (UK)
American Public Health Association Policy Statement
Australian Medical Association
Group 3: Faith-Based Organizations Supporting the Consensus Position
Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican, Rome, May 11, 2011
Society of Friends Statement on Global Climate Change
American Baptist Churches
Unitarian Universalist Association of Congregations
Threat of Global Warming/Climate Change
General Board of the United Methodist Church
Advocacy Focus Issues: Climate Change
Central Conference of American Rabbis
Other Faith-Based Statements
Appendix B: Statistical Inference
Appendix C: Risk Management
Introduction
Definitions
Risk Management Process
Risk Identification
Risk Assessment
Developing a Risk Response
Risk Control
Appendix D: Geology and Climate Change
Geology Society of London Position Statement

Bibliography
Acronyms and Abbreviations
Glossary

Über Autor(innen)

Gregory T. Haugan, PhD, PMP, is the owner of GLH Incorporated specializing in project management support for both U.S. and international organizations. He has over 40 years’ experience as a consultant and as a government and private sector official in the planning, scheduling, management and operation of projects of all sizes; and in the development and implementation of program management information systems.

Dr. Haugan has led courses for the Rappahannock Institute for Lifeline Learning, RILL. They included: Development of Human Societies: Lessons for the Northern Neck of Virginia with major emphasis on current problems with potential shortages in energy and water resources. This was followed by: Oil, Energy and Global Warming. It recognized the indivisibility of the topics, presented current theories and discussed the relationship to the Northern Neck of Virginia and what actions were warranted. In addition he has presented two courses on Climate Change and Global Warming addressing the issues of the science, the impact and the mitigation actions which addresses the various claims and theories with regard to global warming phenomena and its current and projected impact on our lives. His interest and knowledge in these areas led to the current book.

He has written five project management books published by Management Concepts, Inc. of Vienna, VA. "Effective Work Breakdown Structures" published in 2002; "Project Planning and Scheduling" also published in 2002; and "The Work Breakdown Structure in Government Contracting" published in 2003 and "Project Management Fundamentals" was published in 2006 and the Second Edition was published in late 2010. Two of the books have been translated into Japanese and Chinese.

He and his wife currently live in Heathsville, Virginia. For recreation he hiked the 100 mile West Highland Way trail in Scotland in 2006, the year before climbed Mt. Whitney in California. Also the year before that he hiked the Lolo Trail in Idaho, which followed the Inca Trail in Peru, and the Chilkoot Trail in Alaska. In 2010 he hiked trails in Tuscany between mountain villages. He is a former member of the U. S. Triathlon Team and competed in the world championships in Wellington, New Zealand in 1994. Dr. Haugan received his PhD from the American University, his MBA from St. Louis University, and his BSME from the Illinois Institute of Technology. Further information is available at www.pmhaugan.com.