Conway Economic Shocks and Structural Adjustments: Turkey after 1973

1. Auflage 2014
ISBN: 978-1-4832-9948-8
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, Band Volume 166, 233 Seiten, Web PDF

Reihe: Contributions to Economic Analysis

Recent international economic events have demonstrated the vulnerability of individual countries to external disturbances, or `shocks'. Such disturbances necessitate major adjustments to developing countries' trade behaviour, and therefore also to their domestic economies.This volume is an integrated theoretical and econometric study of the impact of global economic changes on the developing Turkish economy during the period 1970-1983. Structural adjustment is defined and presented in the context of a small open economy reacting to external shocks. The interaction of government and private sector is incorporated explicitly in an intertemporal model through examination of dynamic game equilibria, and the implications of this interaction for the effectiveness of stabilization and liberalization policies are explored. This theoretical structure provides the structure for macroeconomic estimation. The estimated model then is employed for an econometric decomposition of Turkish historical economic experience into portions due to various external shocks and government policy changes.The theoretical section demonstrates the necessity of consideration of government/private interactions when measuring and evaluating structural adjustment policies. The econometric results confirm the importance of such analysis for Turkey, and provide evidence of the impact of various government policies on aggregate consumption, investment, inflation and current account deficits.This book will be of use to both international and development economists as a systematic and insightful examination of structural adjustment in Turkey, as well as a template for similar analyses for other open economies.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Conway, P. J.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Front Cover;1
2;Economic Shocks and Structural Adjustments: Turkey after 1973;4
3;Copyright Page;5
4;Table of Contents;10
5;Introduction to the series;6
6;Acknowledgements;8
7;Foreword;9
8;List of Tables;13
9;List of Figures;15
10;List of Symbols;16
11;INTRODUCTION;18
12;Chapter One. PREVIOUS STUDIES OF THE OPEN DEVELOPING ECONOMY;22
12.1;A MODEL OF THE OPEN MACROECONOMY;23
12.2;PREVIOUS THEORETICAL RESEARCH ON THE OPEN MACROECONOMY;25
12.3;THEORETICAL RESEARCH ON APPLICATION OF GAME THEORY;29
12.4;CONTRIBUTIONS OF THIS VOLUME;38
13;Chapter Two. THE TURKISH ECONOMY;40
13.1;TURKISH ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT;41
13.2;THE GOVERNMENT'S ROLE IN THE ECONOMY;46
13.3;OPENNESS OF THE ECONOMY;50
13.4;HISTORICAL TURKISH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE;54
13.5;RECENT STUDIES OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT IN TURKEY;58
13.6;NON-ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF TURKISH ECONOMIC ACTIVITY;61
13.7;CONCLUSIONS;62
14;Chapter Three. THEORETICAL INTRODUCTION TO THE MIXED ECONOMY;64
14.1;STRUCTURE AND NOTATION;66
14.2;PRIVATE EQUILIBRIUM;71
14.3;GOVERNMENT BEHAVIOR;75
14.4;MIXED EQUILIBRIA;79
14.5;CONCLUSIONS;83
14.6;Appendix to Chapter Three;86
15;Chapter Four. THEORETICAL EFFECTS OF EXOGENOUS ECONOMIC SHOCKS;102
15.1;STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT TO IMPORTED-INPUT PRICE INCREASES;103
15.2;STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT AND THE FALLING REAL INTEREST RATE;114
15.3;STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT AND INCREASES IN CAPITAL-GOOD PRICES;116
15.4;DECOMPOSITION OF THE INPUT PRICE SHOCK IMPACT;118
15.5;CONCLUSIONS AND EXTENSIONS;119
15.6;Appendix to Chapter Four;122
16;Chapter Five. ESTIMATION OF THE ECONOMIC MODEL FOR TURKEY;124
16.1;INTRODUCTION;124
16.2;ESTIMATION OF PRIVATE BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS;125
16.3;TESTING HYPOTHESES ON GOVERNMENT-PRIVATE INTERACTION;137
16.4;GOVERNMENT DECISION-MAKING;140
16.5;CONCLUSIONS;144
16.6;Appendix to Chapter Five;146
17;Chapter Six. DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY;166
17.1;MODEL SPECIFICATION;167
17.2;BASE SPECIFICATION;169
17.3;CALCULATION OF THE BASE (OR COUNTERFACTUAL) SOLUTION;170
17.4;DEVIATIONS OF HISTORICAL FROM BASE VALUES;175
17.5;COMPARISON OF THE OIL SHOCK AND DEBT SHOCK PERIODS;184
17.6;CONCLUSIONS;185
17.7;Appendix to Chapter Six;188
18;Chapter Seven. TRADE LIBERALIZATION POLICIES: THE 1980 - 1983 PERIOD IN TURKEY;200
18.1;THE TURKISH RECORD ON TRADE LIBERALIZATION;201
18.2;THEORETICAL TREATMENT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION;203
18.3;SALIENT FEATURES OF THE TURKISH ECONOMY;208
18.4;TRADE LIBERALIZATION: SIMULATION RESULTS;209
18.5;CONCLUSIONS AND EXTENSIONS;217
19;Chapter Eight. CONCLUSIONS AND EXTENSIONS;220
20;BIBLIOGRAPHY;224