Aven Misconceptions of Risk

1. Auflage 2011
ISBN: 978-1-119-96428-5
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 248 Seiten, E-Book

We all face risks in a variety of ways, as individuals, businessesand societies. The discipline of risk assessment and riskmanagement is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive forthe implementation of risk assessment methods and risk managementin organizations. There are great expectations that these toolsprovide suitable frameworks for obtaining high levels ofperformance and balance different concerns such as safety andcosts.
The analysis and management of risk are not straightforward.There are many challenges. The risk discipline is young and therearea a number of ideas, perspectives and conceptions of risk outthere. For example many analysts and researchers consider itappropriate to base their risk management policies on the use ofexpected values, which basically means that potential losses aremultiplied with their associated consequences. However, therationale for such a policy is questionable.
A number of such common conceptions of risk are examined in thebook, related to the risk concept, risk assessments, uncertaintyanalyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, riskmanagement and decision making under uncertainty. The Authordiscusses these concepts, their strenghts and weaknesses, andconcludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions ofrisk than conceptions of risk.
Key Features:
* Discusses common conceptions of risk with supportingexamples.
* Provides recommendations and guidance to risk analysis and riskmanagement.
* Relevant for all types of applications, including engineeringand business.
* Presents the Author's overall conclusions on the issuesaddressed throughout the book.
All those working with risk-related problems need to understandthe fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in thefield of risk, as well as researchers and graduate sutdents willbenefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will alsofind this book of interest.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Aven, Terje

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface.
Acknowledgements.
1 Risk is Equal to the Expected Value.
2 Risk is a Probability or Probability Distribution.
3 Risk Equals a Probability Distribution Quantile(Value-at-Risk).
4 Risk Equals Uncertainty.
5 Risk is Equal to an Event.
6 Risk Equals Expected Disutility.
7 Risk is Restricted to the Case of Objective Probabilities.
8 Risk is the Same as Risk Perception.
9 Risk Relates to Negative Consequences Only.
10 Risk is Determined by the Historical Data.
11 Risk Assessments Produce an Objective Risk Picture.
12 There are Large Inherent Uncertainties in Risk Analyses.
13 Model Uncertainty Should be Quantified.
14 It is Meaningful and Useful to Distinguish between Stochasticand Epistemic Uncertainties.
15 Bayesian Analysis is Based on the Use of Probability Modelsand Bayesian Updating.
16 Sensitivity Analysis is a Type of Uncertainty Analysis.
17 The Main Objective of Risk Management is Risk Reduction.
18 Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Should be Based on Science(Analysis).
19 The Precautionary Principle and Risk Management Cannot beMeaningfully Integrated.
20 Conclusions.
Index.