Aven Foundations of Risk Analysis

2. Auflage 2012
ISBN: 978-1-119-94547-5
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 240 Seiten, E-Book

Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core torisk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressingrisk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, andapplying probability models to real problems. The author providesthe readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require tosuccessfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decisionmaking. This updated edition reflects recent developments onrisk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment.
New material in Foundations of Risk Analysisincludes:
* An up to date presentation of how to understand, define anddescribe risk based on research carried out in recentyears.
* A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistentwith the understanding of risk.
* Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities tomeasure/describe uncertainties.
* A presentation and discussion of a method for assessingthe importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in thebackground knowledge that the subjective probabilities are basedon
* A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval(imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities.
In addition the new version provides a number of otherimprovements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefitanalyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP)principle.
Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework forunderstanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable foradvanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers fromstatistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physicalsciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problemsinvolving risk and uncertainty.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Aven, Terje

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface to the Second Edition
Preface
1 Introduction 1
1.1 THE IMPORTANCE OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS 1
1.2 THE NEED TO DEVELOP A PROPER RISK ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK 3
2 Common Thinking about Risk and Risk Analysis 7
2.1 ACCIDENT RISK 7
2.1.1 Accident Statistics 7
2.1.2 Risk Analysis 11
2.1.3 Reliability Analysis 22
2.2 ECONOMIC RISK 26
2.2.1 General Definitions of Economic Risk in Business and Project
Management 26
2.2.2 A Cost Risk Analysis 28
2.2.3 Finance and Portfolio Theory 29
2.2.4 Treatment of Risk in Project Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 31
2.3 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 33
2.3.1 The Classical Approach 33
2.3.2 The Bayesian Paradigm 34
2.3.3 Economic Risk and Rational Decision-Making 36
2.3.4 Other Perspectives and Applications 37
2.3.5 Conclusions 39